The Toronto Maple Leafs have once more concluded their season in disappointment, following a defeat in Game 7 against the Boston Bruins. This marks another premature exit for the Leafs in the playoffs, despite the presence of three out of four of their “Core Four” superstars in their prime. Similar to last season’s letdown in the second round against the Florida Panthers, such failures carry repercussions.
Last season, it was GM Kyle Dubas who faced the consequences of the team’s shortcomings, as he wasn’t retained, while coach Sheldon Keefe and all the top players remained. Now, with GM Brad Treliving taking over operations and the MLSE ownership presumably discontent with another brief postseason stint, the question arises once more: Who stays and who departs?
The individuals under scrutiny are familiar by now, as dramatic Toronto exits tend to thrust them into the spotlight whether they desire it or not. Each case will be examined to determine whether they will be given another opportunity with the team next season, seek opportunities elsewhere, or exit the scene entirely.
Regardless of whether one supports or criticizes the Maple Leafs, the arguments surrounding their future are compelling for all observers.
Auston Matthews
All right, we have to mention Matthews because he’s arguably the biggest part of all of this, but the worst thing that happened to him was getting sick and then missing the third period of Game 4 and Games 5 and 6 before he returned for Game 7.
Whatever it was that happened to Matthews is deeply unfortunate and no doubt his absence played a major role in Toronto coming up short. Although the Leafs buckled down and won Game 5 in Boston, missing the third period in Game 4 was a brutal blow, and being out for Game 6 was just too much to overcome for a second straight game.
Matthews isn’t going anywhere. He’s one of the best players in the NHL and an MVP-caliber player. Only in the wildest of fantasies would the Maple Leafs move Matthews elsewhere and now that the Arizona Coyotes are in hibernation, the layup choice of where to move him is gone. Besides, they signed him to a four-year, $53 million extension in August. He’s their guy.
Prediction: STAYING
William Nylander
Like with Matthews, William Nylander’s absence from the Leafs’ lineup in Games 1, 2 and 3 was tough to take. The Bruins won two of those three games and, no doubt, with a healthy Nylander in there perhaps things could’ve gone differently in Games 1 and 3.
But Nylander’s return in Game 4 gave Toronto hope they could recover offensively. Although he looked a little rusty, he was far from a problem for Toronto in a poorly played Game 4 for everyone. But in Game 5, Nylander looked more like his old self controlling the puck and pushing the Bruins back on their heels with his speed and skill. In Games 6 and 7 he was fantastic. Ah, what could’ve been had he been good to go sooner?
Nylander’s big contract extension kicks in next season with an $11.5 million cap hit. The Leafs are banking on him to be one of the guys that helps them get over the hump and deep into the playoffs one of these seasons. After how great he’s been and the strong playoffs he had a year ago, they know full well what he’s capable of.
Mitch Marner
One of the more unfortunate lasting images of the Maple Leafs first-round exit will be of Marner, Matthews and Nylander squabbling on the bench during Game 4. If you’re a lip reader of any skill level, it was easy to tell what Nylander was saying to Marner and ultimately Marner took off his gloves and spiked them like a football in frustration while on the bench.
As gleeful as that scene made Leafs haters, it was an image of what it’s been like for Toronto in the playoffs the past few years. The highest of high hopes are being dashed because of various issues on and off the ice.
With Marner heading into the final year of his contract next season with a $10.9 million cap hit, the writing is on the wall for him to be headed elsewhere. With Matthews and Nylander each getting big raises on extensions that kick in next season and Toronto still having glaring issues in the lineup that need to be addressed, dealing Marner to try and secure those players is the best option they’ve got.
Of course, Marner has a full no-move clause, and his cap hit is rough for a lot of teams to bring in whole. Any kind of trade with Marner will only happen with his blessing which means Toronto’s potential choices of where to deal him will be limited severely. But if Marner wants to sign a max-length, eight-year extension with a team, he’ll need to be on their roster before July `1 next summer.
This could be an ugly divorce if it comes to pass, but it would seem like Marner’s days with the Leafs are at an end.
Prediction: GOING
John Tavares
Being captain of the Maple Leafs makes Tavares a sounding board for any criticisms that come their way. It’s part of the job, of course, but his production has almost always kept up well enough to make it all good.
This season, Tavares scored 29 goals and had 65 points in all (0.81 points per game), his lowest output since his rookie season in 2009-2010. It’s impressive how consistent he’s been throughout his career and that only now at age 33 are we maybe seeing him slip back to the pack. That said, 29 goals are nothing to sneeze at either.
Tavares has one more season left on his contract with an $11 million cap hit and it’s hard to imagine him going anywhere else in a trade right now. He’s not one to rock the boat and, as we all know by now, playing in Toronto has been his dream come true.
Tavares will keep things calm when things are amped out of control and if there’s anything they need in The Six, it’s a cool head to prevail when the noise gets loudest. He’s the least of their problems and even if he was a problem at all, it’s one more year with a sky-high cap hit, he wouldn’t be going anywhere anyway.
Prediction: STAYING
Sheldon Keefe
You could argue that Maple Leafs coach Sheldon Keefe has one of the toughest jobs in sports.
Running the Leafs bench while they’re teeming with talent comes with sky-high expectations and the hope that he can win the franchise their first Stanley Cup since 1967. That’s a lot to deal with, but having a team with as many supremely talented players should make it easier…right?
After the Leafs lost in five games to the Florida Panthers a year ago in the second round–a finish that was better than what any Leafs team had done since 2004 but was still a huge disappointment—there was strong sentiment to let Keefe go then. But management decided to let Dubas go and Treliving opted to keep Keefe on board to not entirely rock the boat too much in one summer.
At times during the season and in the playoffs, Keefe seemed lost for answers on how to fix up various issues (like the power play in the postseason for instance). Some of the lineup decisions and line calls throughout the season and in games raised questions. These kinds of issues can happen to any team in the NHL during the season, but misusing a lineup with one of the best players in the league and a cast of other elite talent year in and year out just cannot happen.
Keefe is scheduled to speak with reporters on Monday morning to wrap up the season, which is quite curious. But…If the Leafs are going to go to the next level, they’ll need someone else behind the bench to take them there to do it.
Prediction: GOING
Of everyone involved in running the Toronto Maple Leafs, general manager Brad Treliving is the newest one to the party. While Brendan Shanahan and Sheldon Keefe have more time invested in the team, Treliving is not without blame for them falling short once again.
Treliving stayed away from making any major moves and opted to fill the lineup with guys who play with more of an edge. Max Domi and Tyler Bertuzzi were solid enough to help out, the flier he took on Simon Benoit turned out to be a good one for defensive depth.
But a three-year contract to Ryan Reaves was a head-scratcher while Joel Klingberg’s one-year deal just did not work. At the deadline, he brought in defensive help with former Leaf Ilya Lyubushkin and Joel Edmundson as well as rugged forward Conor Dewar.
For a team that boasts the highest of high-end skill, they were surrounded by a lot of tougher, physical players which made for a bit of a dissonant mix in the playoffs.
Treliving likely isn’t going anywhere because GMs don’t usually get bounced after one year on the job. But if Keefe is fired and Shanahan is ousted, all the focus will be on him to shape the Leafs the way he believes they should be built. It’s not exactly an enviable spot to be in.
Prediction: STAYING
Brendan Shanahan
Perhaps the most intriguing situation for the Maple Leafs this offseason surrounds team president Brendan Shanahan.
Shanahan has overseen the organization since April 2014 and has been there from the beginning of their resurgence. He brought in Mike Babcock, and was there for the drafting of William Nylander, Mitch Marner, and Auston Matthews as well as the signing of John Tavares.
And while he wasn’t the general manager, he’s the guy who fired Dave Nonis, and hired Lou Lamoriello, Kyle Dubas and now Brad Treliving. The so-called “Shanaplan” to get the Leafs to the Stanley Cup Final and to win one for the first time since 1967 has stalled out, more or less, in the first round of the playoffs in seven of the past eight seasons after missing the playoffs in his first two seasons in charge.
If Toronto’s ownership is frustrated with the lack of progress in the postseason and aren’t sure Shanahan has a bead on where things are headed, then there’s reason to believe he won’t be back. However, he just hired Treliving last summer and it’ll be up to him to decide what to do about the “Core Four,” Marner’s future, and how to maneuver the roster given their ever-bursting salary cap.
Ditching a team president usually signals major changes ahead or a trimming of the fat. It’s difficult to see either of those things happening right now in Toronto.
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