Ahead of major pivot points on the NHL calendar, our team at The Athletic’s Vancouver bureau goes through an exercise where we map out what a perfect offseason or trade deadline might look like for the Vancouver Canucks.
Since we started doing this exercise a few years ago, however, we’ve never had the opportunity to model it out for a clear buyer with, perhaps, a real opportunity to contend deep into the Stanley Cup playoffs.
The Canucks, however, have shocked us and the hockey world. At the time of publication, the club ranks first in the Western Conference, first in the Pacific Division, and is tied for first in the NHL.
With 34 games remaining in a marathon NHL season, Vancouver profiles like a team worth significantly investing in. A team that has a unique opportunity to go all in, with cause, in a surprisingly wide-open NHL environment this season.
So what needs should the club be looking to fill? Which premium assets should they be willing to part with to upgrade this roster for the playoffs? And what type of under-the-radar additions could pay dividends if this team continues their dream campaign into late May or, perhaps, even early June?
In a season in which everything has gone according to plan, and even exceeded our wildest imagination, let’s look conceptually at what a “perfect” trade deadline could look like for the Canucks in the weeks ahead.
1. Acquire a top-six play driver
It doesn’t really matter if it’s a centre, it doesn’t really matter if it’s a winger. The Canucks just need a true play-driving top-six forward. Period.
There are still too many games where the Canucks’ top six gets outshot and outchanced at five-on-five. The reunited Lotto Line briefly gave the team some territorial dominance at the top of the lineup, but that’s quickly dissipated since the end of the last road trip.
The play driver distinction is important. The Canucks’ deadline forward acquisition would ideally take some of the heavy lifting off of Elias Pettersson and J.T. Miller when it comes to driving a line.
What does it mean to be a play driver? Play drivers excel in areas (dynamic puck carrying to transport play up ice on zone exits/entries, tenacious puck battle winning, offensive zone playmaking creativity, etc.) that translate to more shifts with possession in the offensive zone and can create scoring chances on their own. Think of what Conor Garland does as the engine of the third line as an example from the Canucks’ current crop of wingers as “play driving”. Now picture Garland’s play-driving but with better finishing and higher offensive production. That would be the ideal top-six forward to pair with Pettersson or Miller.
If Miller has an off night, his entire line slumps. It’s the same thing with Pettersson. If he’s not creating chances, the entire line is toast because Ilya Mikheyev and Andrei Kuzmenko haven’t tended to either.
Lately, it’s been especially noticeable that if Miller and Pettersson are unable to transition the puck up ice with control, nobody else on the line can consistently do it. Without clean, fast breakouts, Vancouver finds itself hemmed in for longer shifts in the defensive zone at the top of the lineup, but come playoff time, this club will need their best players to consistently generate offence off the forecheck or the rush against the best players on the planet.
Most top players around the league have another high-end play driver on their line to help carry the load. Nathan MacKinnon has Mikko Rantanen, Auston Matthews has Mitch Marner, Nikita Kucherov has Brayden Point, Jason Robertson has Roope Hintz, Aleksander Barkov has Sam Reinhart and so on.
Pettersson and Miller don’t have that luxury. It’s time for that change and we’ll dig into more specific player targets in future articles shortly.
2. Only surrender a top prospect if the return is a star-level player with term on an efficient contract
When an NHL contender is trying to sustain a lengthy contention window, one of the biggest challenges is figuring out how to fit as many top players under the salary cap as possible. Ultimately, contenders need bargain contracts. That can come from having star players locked up to very team-friendly deals, such as Quinn Hughes ($7.85 million), Thatcher Demko ($5 million) and Pettersson ($7.35 million).
It can also come from drafting and developing young players on entry-level deals or second contracts.
With Pettersson and Filip Hronek requiring big raises this summer, there’s going to be pressure on the Canucks’ prospect pipeline to develop players who can contribute on ELCs and alleviate cap crunches.
That’s where Jonathan Lekkerimäki and Tom Willander factor in as important pieces in the not-too-distant future.
Willander is having a solid draft-plus one season in Boston University, producing 12 points in 19 games. Lekkerimäki’s stock is rapidly rising after crushing it at the World Juniors and breaking out in the SHL with 10 goals and 19 points in 30 games. And because this draft class isn’t seen to be as deep as the last two, they’ll both hold more trade value than the club’s late first-round pick.
Lekkerimäki and Willander are super high-quality prospects, but given their timeline and this club’s shockingly good showing this season, you probably wouldn’t call them untouchable. That said, the only way it’d make sense for the Canucks to include one of them in a trade is if it ends up with the Canucks adding a star-level player with term left on a good contract. Anything short of that, especially for a pure rental, must be scrupulously avoided at a perfect trade deadline.
3. … But be willing to pay a premium for a long-term fit
Even though prices have dropped in recent seasons — the first-round pick and a top prospect and a young player price of a decade ago for a top rental at the deadline is seemingly all but extinct — paying for unrestricted free agent rentals is prohibitive. It’s negative EV.
Sometimes it’s the cost of doing business, but usually, it’s just an ugly way for an organization to bleed overall value.
In recent years the best deadline deals have brought in players that fit a teams need for multiple seasons. These deals have returned players that have multiple years remaining on efficient contracts, like Blake Coleman, Barclay Goodrow and Brandon Hagel for the Tampa Bay Lightning, Jake McCabe for the Toronto Maple Leafs, or Mattias Ekholm for the Edmonton Oilers. Or teams have acquired expiring players with at least a year of team control remaining, like Artturi Lehkonen for the Colorado Avalanche. Alternatively, some teams have brought in “rental types”, only to keep the pending unrestricted free agent with the organization with a subsequent contract, like Ivan Barbashev of the Vegas Golden Knights or Nick Paul of the Lightning.
Often these types of acquisitions are more expensive, but they’re far better business, particularly for a team with as many expiring deals — and the cap flexibility that results — as Vancouver possesses going into this upcoming offseason.
Essentially, if you’re going to pay retail price for a short-term upgrade in any event, you might as well target a piece that can help you win over multiple seasons. That would be the Canucks’ priority at a perfect NHL trade deadline.
4. Fix your costs: Don’t deal an open-ended first-round pick
“First-round pick” is the magic word that gets the fan base of any team selling a player at the deadline excited. The Canucks should be prepared to surrender one of them if they intend to make a big splash at the deadline, but it’s worth remembering that first-round picks aren’t created equal.
The odds of drafting an impact player with a first-round pick differ significantly depending on where exactly the pick slots.
Based on Dom Luszczyszyn’s research in 2020, the average No. 27 pick in an NHL draft, for example, is worth 28 percent less than the No. 17 pick and is worth less than half compared to the average No. 7 pick.
What does this look like in real life? Well, 2019 is probably the most recent draft class we can fully judge. In the five drafts between 2015 and 2019, a team’s ability to score an impact player (a top-nine forward, top-four defenceman or starting goaltender) dropped off dramatically from the No. 20 pick onwards.
Twenty out of the 45 picks made from No. 11 to No. 19 in those five draft classes (42.5 percent) became impact NHLers. Only 12 of the 58 picks made from the No. 20-No. 31 range (20.6 percent), on the other hand, turned into impact players.
What does this mean for the Canucks? Well, Vancouver is currently the favourite to win the Pacific division. If they win the Pacific, they’re guaranteed a pick in the mid to late 20s, regardless of how deep they go in the playoffs. Colorado, for example, picked No. 27 last summer despite getting eliminated in the first round, simply because it won the Central division.
With these probabilities in mind, the Canucks should strongly prefer moving this year’s first-round pick rather than an unprotected 2025 first-rounder. The 2024 pick is a good bet to be a late first and likely wouldn’t net them a prospect of Willander or Lekkerimaki’s calibre. It’s the Canucks’ most sensible trade chip to build a package around.
5. Add one more depth defenseman, ideally a puck mover
Vancouver is solidly well positioned through with blue-line depth going into the deadline.
Noah Juulsen has cemented himself as a regular, Mark Friedman is a solid eighth option, and the likes of Christian Wolanin, Matt Irwin and Cole McWard are decent third-pair options given that they’re three injuries away from being pressed into full-time duty. When you can go 11 defenders deep with a credible degree of confidence, you’re mostly set.
The only thing Vancouver’s back-end depth lacks as a player type is a more dynamic, fast-skating, offensive-minded depth defender, ideally one who is right-handed. Wolanin is a solid puck mover with NHL-level touch and skill, but at a perfect trade deadline, the Canucks would ideally buy a puck mover that could function as insurance if the club loses a top-pair defender for a crucial game during the postseason.
Filip Hronek has fit in so well this season that it’s been easy to forget that breakouts have been a fatal flaw for this club in years past. With Quinn Hughes and Hronek performing the way they have this season and an overhauled blue line, this version of the Canucks has moved the puck at a sufficient level from the back end, but adding one more fast-skating blue liner at the deadline could help ensure that the club doesn’t drop below that passable level if an untimely injury strikes in the playoffs.
6. Add some “below the line” insurance
The Canucks currently have 46 contracts on the books, according to CapFriendly.com.
And while they’ll want to keep a slot or two open to recruit NCAA free agents (or, perhaps, sign 2023 first-round pick Willander), the priorities of a playoff team will necessarily shift over the balance of this season.
As we’ve seen in years past, teams out of the playoff race can offer immediate NHL games and NHL salaries to the top college free agents down the stretch, something that teams in the heat of a race for a Division crown or home-ice advantage typically can’t. Scott Young and Vancouver’s scouting department will presumably still target some college, European and undrafted CHL free agents this spring, but those players will likely start in the American League on professional tryouts rather than in the NHL lineup.
Effectively the club’s success at the NHL level this season simultaneously makes recruitment more difficult and diminishes the value of holding extra contract slots beyond this season.
By the time the March 8 NHL trade deadline rolls around, moreover, the NHL’s roster rules shift. NHL teams become limited to just four recalls from the deadline until after the season (barring emergency), the 23-man roster limit is lifted (although the cap upper limit remains in effect) and players on an NHL roster when the deadline passes lose eligibility to play in the AHL playoffs and, if their cap hit is above $1.15 million, can’t have the minimum amount of their cap hit buried if they’re re-assigned.
With all of this in mind, a perfect offseason for the Canucks could include the club bringing in a player or two currently in the AHL before the deadline passes, to give the club some additional emergency depth for the playoffs. A veteran third goaltender who has played NHL games (Louis Domingue-style), some additional size, and perhaps an extra defender currently in the AHL could all help raise the club’s floor in case the injury bug bites during an extended playoff run.
These types of additions would also serve to bolster the club’s roster down in Abbotsford while permitting the club to leave their important young players in the AHL to develop while playing playoff hockey if a need arises.
This type of player can typically be added affordably — players on one-way deals might be free, others might go for future considerations, or for an out of favour prospect — and could prove to be worthwhile insurance additions at a perfect Canucks trade deadline.
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