A look at the three main problems facing the Detroit Lions and their potential solutions.
Despite their current slump, the Detroit Lions weren’t always this way. Although some people are eager to label the Lions as frauds, they weren’t at all over the first six weeks of the season. They were coming off four straight victories of 14 points or more, and they had accumulated a 5-1 record. That isn’t what bad teams do.
However, the Lions have undoubtedly played a lacklustre game ever since. It is difficult to dispute that. They’ve lost their last seven games 4-3, and there has been a noticeable decline on both sides of the ball.
As Detroit looks to make a December/January title run, let’s take a closer look at what has gone wrong in particular over the last 15 days and see whether these issues can be resolved.
Turnovers
First 6 games: 6 turnovers
Last 7 games: 14 turnovers
Over the past seven games, the Lions have shown an extreme propensity for turnovers. Actually, only the Jets and Browns have had more turnovers over that same time span.
Saying something like, “Oh, just take care of the ball, and we’ll be fine,” is simple. But regrettably, the opposition almost always forces turnovers—whether it’s through tight coverage, pressure on the quarterback, or a deft punchout by a linebacker.
Pressure has been the Lions’ biggest problem lately. According to PFF, Jared Goff faced pressure on 32.4 percent of his dropbacks throughout the first six games. That pressure percentage has skyrocketed to 37.4 percent over the past seven games.
Jared Goff, as we all know, is not your typical quarterback when it comes to handling pressure. But he’s been a total bust as of late. This is a passage from an article written by Bill Barnwell for ESPN.
He has never been a great quarterback under pressure, but before the bye, he ranked 16th in QBR when opposing teams’ pass rushes got in his face. That’s not ideal, but it’s not going to hold back Detroit.
Since the bye, however, Goff’s QBR under pressure is 0.6. That’s less than one out of 100. It’s the worst mark in football. He has posted a minus-25.7% CPOE under pressure over that stretch, gone 10-of-36 for 60 yards, and taken 10 sacks.
Can it thus be fixed?
Yes and no, then. If Frank Ragnow returns soon, I don’t think the Lions offensive line will suffer as much as it has lately. Ragnow at centre and Graham Glasgow at right guard continue to be their most effective offensive line combination. And even though Goff is having trouble right now, rather than becoming the worst quarterback ever, he should ultimately revert to being at least a below-average passer versus pressure.
But there is a serious problem ahead: the Lions have four straight games against teams that can pressure the quarterback and force turnovers. Take a look:
Broncos: First in NFL in takeaways, 18th in sacks
Vikings: t-13th in takeaways, 14th in sacks
Cowboys: t-7th in takeaways, t-8th in sacks
Coverage
Although the Lions secondary has been playing poorly throughout the season, it has just been brutally clear. In response, Detroit made some personnel adjustments for their game against the Bears last week. While Ifeatu Melifonwu moved up to the bench in favour of Tracy Walker, Jerry Jacobs’ playing time is beginning to decrease because to Kindle Vildor.
To what extent has it been bad? Let’s take another look at the splits now:
First 6 games: 60.8 completion percentage allowed, 5.7 Y/A, 8 TDs, 6 INTs, 79.6 passer rating
Last 7 games: 65.0 completion percentage allowed, 7.9 Y/A, 13 TDs, 3 INTs, 106.3 passer rating
Since Week 7, the Lions rank 31st in passer rating allowed, 31st in pass defense DVOA, 31st in dropback EPA allowed, and 29th in success rate.
Can it thus be fixed?
My bet is not on it. Early in the season, Detroit appeared to have luck as blown coverages had been commonplace. The only question is whether their opponents will be able to exploit them. At the conclusion of the season, Detroit might get back C.J. Gardner-Johnson, and Vildor and Melifonwu might contribute to some consistency. However, I believe that the Lions are now saddled with one of the worst football teams’ secondaries.
The one bright spot in this situation is that, aside from the Cowboys, they’re facing some rather average pass offences in the latter stages.
Denver is ranked 16th in passing DVOA and 20th in dropback EPA. The Vikings’ quarterback situation is currently unclear, but since Kirk Cousins suffered a season-ending injury, the team has placed 24th in dropback EPA and 26th in passing DVOA.
The Cowboys are sixth in passing DVOA and second in dropback EPA. They will present an issue.
The illustrated third quarter
The third quarter performance of the Lions has been outstanding. Just take a look at their point disparity overall by quarter:
First quarter: +24
Second quarter: +30
Third quarter: -38
Fourth quarter: +16
Overtime: -6
With the exception of the third quarter, the Lions lead every quarter—and by a sizable margin. The third quarter is just blowing them out, and to be honest, it doesn’t make any sense.
I wish I could claim there was a pattern or logic to it. They continue to dominate in the other three quarters, so it doesn’t seem to be a sign of a bigger problem. However, the issue has persisted long enough that I’m not convinced we can write Detroit off as ultimately returning to the mean.
The third quarter lulls have been questioned several times by Lions coaches, but they don’t appear to have an explanation.
Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson from October; “It’s a big deal because it was a problem last year. So, it’s one that we haven’t been able to fix yet. We’re certainly aware of it as a coaching staff. The players are aware of it and so, it’s something that we’re looking to improve. There’s a number of ways we’re tackling that right now.”
Coach Dan Campbell after the Bears loss: “We haven’t been able to get going. We’ve done a lot of different things. We changed what we’re running, how we’re going to run it, what we’re doing, who we’re trying to get the ball to. We fizzled out there. But we’ve always been able to get it going late third or early fourth. We’ve traditionally been a very good first quarter, fourth quarter team. I would much rather be a good fourth quarter team than a third quarter team, but that didn’t even show up today.”
Can it be fixed?
Man, I have no idea. It’s been an issue for far too long for me to think that it would just go away. However, the third quarter point difference for the Lions’ next opponents is as follows:
Broncos: -40
Vikings: -1
Cowboys: -11
Well, that’s good news, I suppose.
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