After selecting second in the NFL Draft just a year ago, the Texans are now prepared to take on the Chiefs.
HIGHLIGHTS
- The Houston Texans, led by quarterback C.J. Stroud, are set to become contenders and challenge the Kansas City Chiefs for AFC supremacy.
- Stroud’s impressive rookie season and the improvement of the Texans’ defense under head coach DeMeco Ryans will make them a formidable opponent come next season.
- To beat the Chiefs, the Texans will need to follow the blueprint laid out by Tom Brady and Joe Burrow.
A year ago, the Houston Texans were coming off a disastrous 2022 season, finishing last in the AFC South with a 3-13-1 record. Despite this, their unexpected victory in the regular-season finale against the Indianapolis Colts cost them the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft.
This win, initially thought by fans to be a deliberate move by outgoing head coach Lovie Smith, turned out to be fortuitous. The Carolina Panthers traded up for the first pick and selected Bryce Young, who struggled in his rookie year, leaving C.J. Stroud available for the Texans at No. 2.
This turn of events proved beneficial for Houston. With a playoff win under their belt and a promising young head coach in DeMeco Ryans, the Texans seem poised for success sooner than anticipated, especially after trading disgraced franchise quarterback Deshaun Watson to the Cleveland Browns.
Heading into the next season, the Texans are transitioning from underdogs to contenders. Their newfound competitiveness could pose a significant challenge to the Kansas City Chiefs as the back-to-back champions seek to solidify their position as the dominant force in the AFC.
The Texans are set to leapfrog the AFC’s second tier in 2024
Stroud will prove his standing against the likes of Allen, Burrow, and others
Stroud’s selection in the 2023 draft was met with controversy due to reports of his struggles in the S2 cognition test. However, his subsequent achievement of the Offensive Rookie of the Year award indicates that the Texans made the correct decision in overlooking this aspect of Stroud’s profile.
Stroud had an impressive season, throwing for 4,108 yards and 23 touchdowns, with just five interceptions. He ranked in the top 10 in several categories, including passing yards (8th), yards per attempt (8.2, 3rd), passer rating (100.8, 6th), and first downs gained via passing (188, T-8th).
As the driving force behind the offense, Stroud helped the team rank 12th in yards per game and 14th in points per game. Working alongside offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, he played a role in the breakout seasons of wide receivers Nico Collins (80 receptions, 1,297 yards, 8 touchdowns) and Tank Dell (47 receptions, 15.1 yards per catch, 760 scrimmage yards in 11 games).
In addition to their offensive success, the Texans’ head coach, DeMeco Ryans, led a significantly improved defense that played a crucial role in the team’s push for the AFC South title.
| Texans Defense, Per Game Stats | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Total Yards | Passing Yards | Rushing Yards | Points |
| 2022 | 379.5 (30th) | 209.3 (10th) | 170.2 (32nd) | 24.7 (27th) |
| 2023 | 330.7 (12th) | 234.1 (23rd) | 96.6 (6th) | 20.8 (10th) |
Having a quarterback like Stroud, known for his strong arm and ability to score quickly, is valuable. However, it’s equally important for the Texans to have a defense capable of containing top AFC quarterbacks such as Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, and Justin Herbert. This defensive strength will be crucial for the Texans as they aim to surpass their AFC Divisional Round performance from this year.
Kansas City is dominant but not unbeatable
Ryans will have to copy the brilliance of Belichick, Arians, and Taylor in order to overcome Mahomes
In the past six seasons, Kansas City has achieved remarkable success, winning three Super Bowls and reaching the AFC Championship Game every year. This sustained period of dominance is both astonishing and daunting, as any team aspiring to be taken seriously in the conference must face the formidable challenge presented by Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid, and the rest of the Chiefs.
Although the Chiefs have experienced varying levels of competitiveness in their three playoff losses during this period, certain patterns have emerged, including the final score.
- 1/20/19, New England Patriots 37 – Kansas City Chiefs 31
- 2/07/21, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31 – Kansas City Chiefs 9
- 1/29/23, Cincinnati Bengals 27 – Kansas City Chiefs 24
These three defeats were inflicted by two different quarterbacks: Tom Brady and Joe Burrow.
While the sample size is limited, it’s clear that defeating Mahomes in the postseason requires an elite quarterback. Even then, success is not guaranteed – as evidenced by the Chiefs’ recent victories over Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson in this year’s playoffs. However, this pattern suggests that having an elite quarterback is the most effective strategy for overcoming Kansas City’s formidable defense.
Fortunately for Houston, Stroud has already begun to establish himself as one of the league’s top quarterbacks. Despite being a rookie, Stroud showcased his talent in the Wild Card Round against the Cleveland Browns this year, throwing for 274 yards and three touchdowns in his playoff debut.
Despite Stroud’s potential, the Kansas City Chiefs are not solely reliant on Patrick Mahomes. They boasted the second-best scoring defense in the NFL last season and still have arguably the best tight end in football today, if not ever, in Travis Kelce.
A deeper examination of each of the Chiefs’ playoff defeats reveals some vulnerabilities that the Texans can aim to exploit.
| Chiefs’ Playoff Losses in Mahomes Era | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opponent | Round | Chiefs’ 3rd-Down% | Opponent Yardage | Opponent Sacks | Opponent TOP |
| Patriots | AFC Champ. | 44.4% | 524 | 4 | 43:59 |
| Buccaneers | Super Bowl | 23.1% | 340 | 3 | 31:23 |
| Bengals | AFC Champ. | 50.0% | 359 | 4 | 35:56 |
In each defeat, the Chiefs struggled to convert half or fewer of their third downs and lost the battle for time of possession. Additionally, their opponents consistently applied pressure on Mahomes, particularly from the interior of the offensive line.
This pressure is significant because Mahomes is known for his creativity and scrambling ability, which he demonstrated by rushing for 66 yards against the 49ers in the Super Bowl. He excels at maneuvering in the pocket and extending plays, often escaping laterally as a last resort. Teams that can disrupt the interior of the offensive line can limit these extended plays, which are a key aspect of the Chiefs’ offense.
Despite ranking in the middle of the pack with 46.0 sacks as a team (tied for 13th in the NFL), the Texans’ pass rush was diverse. Edge rushers Jonathan Greenard and Will Anderson Jr. combined for 19.5 sacks in 2023, while defensive tackles Maliek Collins and Sheldon Rankins each recorded at least five sacks.
The Texans’ front seven demonstrated impressive depth, with six other players credited with at least one sack during the season.
All of this detailed analysis is, admittedly, speculative. There will be numerous changes between now and next year’s AFC Playoffs, and the Texans must still navigate through a challenging array of AFC contenders before facing the Chiefs.
Nevertheless, with Stroud and Ryans leading the team, supported by impressive skill-position players and defensive talent, the Texans will be considered one of the few teams capable of challenging the Chiefs next season.
This turnaround is quite remarkable for a team that missed out on the first overall pick just a year ago.
Be the first to comment