The Lobos lost to Air Force on Saturday in The Pit with a startling score of 78-77.
The past six days have been tumultuous for men’s basketball in the Mountain West, much to the surprise of no one.
The Colorado State Rams dropped to 7-7 in their current record in top-25 contests after falling to UNLV on Saturday. But hold on, things get better still! On Tuesday, there were two insane buzzer-beaters. Darius Brown II of Utah State, who has been on a roll, forced overtime against Fresno State on Tuesday night by sinking a game-tying 35-foot 3-pointer with time running out.
After Isaiah Stevens of Colorado State tied the game at 74 with 2.5 seconds remaining, Nevada’s Jarod Lucas scored one of the most insane buzzer-beaters you will see all season from beyond the half-court.
Not to note, UNLV defeated Wyoming 75-69 in overtime on the road before Utah State’s eventual overtime victory. Additionally, SDSU survived a near-scare against San Jose State with a 72-64 victory to maintain their 20-game home win streak—the third-longest in programme history.
The most stunning tale of the MW season, if not the whole week, was undoubtedly New Mexico’s 78-77 home loss to Air Force on Saturday inside The Pit.
Considering where each team was ranked according to KenPom’s stats going into the game, the Lobos’ defeat was historic. Per Lobos outperformed Albuquerque Journal journalist Geoff Grammer:
Before the game, the two teams’ KenPom differential was 236 spots, according to Grammer. Over the last five days, that difference has shrunk to 228 (AFA – 263; UNM – 35). This was Air Force’s second conference victory of the year; their first came in late January when they defeated UNLV 32 points to none at home.
Additionally, New Mexico suffered its first Quad 4 defeat of the year on Saturday after winning all previous meetings 9-0. The issue still stands: If at all, how much did New Mexico’s loss on Saturday impact their prospects of making the NCAA Tournament? Let’s investigate.
The last seven games have seen the Lobos lose four times, with their two victories coming against Quad 1 opponents CSU and Nevada. Among the top-7, they have the fewest Quad 1 wins (3) and Quad 1 or 2 wins (5). However, the fact that they lost on Saturday didn’t really effect them.
Any team hoping to compete for a coveted at-large slot would never want to have a Quad 4 loss on their record. New Mexico fell from No. 20 to No. 26 in the NET as a result, although it has subsequently moved back up into the top-25. Long-term NET rankings aren’t always important, but if the season ended today and it wasn’t included in the field, it would be the first team inside the top-30 in NET rankings to miss the dance.
Top Teams (per NET) To Miss NCAA Tournament As An At-Large
| Year: | Pre-NCAAT NET | Team | Pre-NCAAT Quad 1 Wins | Pre-NCAAT Quad 2 Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-23 | 38 | North Texas | 1 (out of 4 Q1 Games) | 3 (out of 5) |
| 2021-22 | 39 | Oklahoma | 4 (out of 16) | 6 (out of 8) |
| 2020-21 (COVID-shortened) | 42 | Penn State | 3 (out of 15) | 4 (out of 5) |
| 2018-19 | 33 | NC State | 3 (out of 12) | 5 (out of 5) |
Three other teams in the top-50 in NET at the time of publishing had at least one Quad 4 loss: Florida Atlantic (37), Indiana State (28), Mississippi State (31), and Northwestern (48). Looking further out to the top-75, there are seven more teams: Bradley (58), UCF (66), St. Bonaventure (67), McNeese State (55), Grand Canyon (57), Appalachian State (72) and VCU (73).
The only three teams in the group with at least two Quad 4 defeats are FAU, St. Bonaventure, and VCU. Still, 10% of the top-50 and about 17% of the top-75 in NET each have one Quad 4 loss.
Granted, there was greater parity the previous year: 15 of the top 75 suffered at least one Quad 4 loss, and seven of the top 50 (before to the NCAA Tournament) finished. However, that also takes into account a larger sample size of games where chaos could arise in the final few regular season games as well as the conference tournaments. Even Utah State, the top-ranked team in the Mountain West, had two Quad 4 defeats; Texas A&M, the top-ranked team, had two Q4 losses apiece.
Both of those previously listed teams had twice as many Quad 1-2 victories (USU: 11; T&M: 12) as New Mexico does at the moment, but the Lobos can still win two Quad 1 games to end the regular season and at least three more if they advance far in the MW Tournament.
Nine teams, which is three times more than the previous best, advanced as at-large to the Tournament in 2017 after suffering at least one Quad 4 loss. In 2021–22, it was three; in 2020–21 (a COVID–shortened season with primarily conference games), it was zero; and in 2018–19, the year the NEt was originally introduced, it was two.
While not all Quad 1 or 2 victories are made equal, by the time conference championships were over, most of them teams had resumes comparable to or superior to the Lobos’ current ones.
Even if they just make it as a First Four squad, New Mexico still has a clear path to advancement as an at-large team.
As of February 28, forecasts from the Bracket Matrix indicate that UNM will advance to the field in 110 out of 114 brackets, with an average seed of 10.1. 42 people (38.2 percent) predicted it to be a First Four team; 46 ranked it as a No. 9–10 team, and the other four as a No. 8 seed.
Although Saturday’s defeat was extremely disappointing and historically poor, as Grammer pointed out, it doesn’t mean the end for UNM until there is an unanticipated collapse in the last minutes. There’s still time to turn things around, but there’s also plenty of time to go bad.
March is almost here! For better or worse, this is just the beginning of the turmoil!
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