Is he the right answer at shortstop for Diamondbacks after poor second half?

The Arizona Diamondbacks will open 2024 with Geraldo Perdomo as their starting shortstop, but is this the right choice after his poor second half?

Arizona Diamondbacks’ manager Torey Louvullo recently announced that Geraldo Perdomo, who had a standout performance in the first half of the 2023 season but experienced a significant decline in the second half, will be the starting shortstop at the beginning of the 2024 season. Despite being an All-Star in 2023, Perdomo’s offensive production waned in the latter part of the year, prompting speculation about the wisdom of this decision, especially with the presence of top prospect Jordan Lawlar on the 40-man roster.

Perdomo’s overall offensive statistics for the 2023 season included a .246/.353/.359 slash line over 495 plate appearances, featuring a respectable 12.9% walk rate and a 17.4% strikeout rate. However, his power numbers were notably low, with a mere .113 isolated slugging percentage and six home runs. He posted a .319 wOBA and 99 wRC+, classifying him as an approximately league-average hitter.

On the defensive side, Perdomo received mixed reviews, with a -3 rating in defensive runs saved but positive assessments from UZR/150 (+4.3) and outs above average (+2). Despite being a decent fielding shortstop with league-average offensive contributions, questions arise about whether he is the right choice for the starting role.

The crux of the concern lies in Perdomo’s inconsistent performance throughout the season. While he had a stellar start, batting .383/.456/.617 with a 190 wRC+ in the early months, his production sharply declined. In May, he struggled with a .191 average and an 84 wRC+, followed by a brief recovery in June (.286/.398/.357, 114 wRC+). However, his performance continued to slide after June, culminating in a .205/.318/.280 slash line, .277 wOBA, and 70 wRC+ for the remainder of the season. Notably, only April and June saw Perdomo with an OPS above .700, and April was the sole month with an OPS surpassing .800. These fluctuations in performance raise doubts about his readiness for the consistent demands of the starting shortstop role.

Is Geraldo Perdomo the right answer at shortstop for the Diamondbacks?

There are some concerning underlying aspects to Perdomo’s performance, including his 85.7 MPH exit velocity, 0.7% barrel rate, and 19.5% hard-hit rate, all ranking in the bottom third percentile or lower. Statistically, batters with a sub-1% barrel rate in 400+ plate appearances have not fared well historically. His xwOBA stands at a mere .275, closely resembling his wOBA after June, which was .277.

On the other hand, Jordan Lawlar had an impressive season at Amarillo, boasting a .263/.366/.474 slash line with a .378 wOBA and 122 wRC+. Lawlar, known for his speed and power, stole 33 bases, hit 16 home runs, and posted a .211 isolated slugging percentage. Although he initially struck out around a quarter of the time in 2022, he improved to a 21.7% strikeout rate at Double-A and maintained an 11.5% walk rate. Despite a challenging start in the MLB, Lawlar showcased his defensive prowess at shortstop and proved to be one of the fastest players in the league.

Granting Perdomo the starting role comes with risks, especially considering his struggles in the latter part of the previous season. He ranked poorly among batters with at least 240 plate appearances in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ from July onward. Lawlar, on the other hand, had a successful minor league season, and although he faced challenges in his brief MLB call-up, he displayed potential.

However, there is a reasonable argument for allowing Perdomo to start at shortstop in 2024. Lawlar is only 21 years old, turning 22 in mid-June, with limited plate appearances above Double-A. Despite Perdomo’s subpar second half, he concluded the year with a respectable 99 wRC+ and an OBP above .350. The worst-case scenario is that if Perdomo struggles, the Diamondbacks can bring in Lawlar for an extended opportunity in the majors. Therefore, starting with Perdomo in the early months of 2024 seems like a reasonable approach. The team can assess his performance during this period and make adjustments accordingly, potentially calling up Lawlar if needed.