With his UNM Lobos, rookie forward JT Toppin has been a constant force in the Mountain West. Should he declare this year, what kind of NBA role will he fill?
Jadyn “JT” Toppin was ranked 12th in the country in field goal % a few weeks ago when Draft Digest highlighted him. Since then, nothing has changed; he is still ranked 12th.
With Toppin, consistency is evident, and consistency is one of the key characteristics of a highly successful NBA rookie.
He’s put up an extremely outstanding 12.5 points on 63.1% FG, 9.0 boards, and 3.1 stocks (steals + blocks), practically keeping the numbers constant throughout.
By the way, he just needs 26 minutes every game to do this.
Toppin is an aggressive combo forward who gets after it on the boards and is a physically gifted player with motor, as was described in the previous article. And there’s no need to search any farther for the nation’s most productive Division I basketball player than the true freshman from Oak Cliff, Texas.
With 8.5 attempts per game (or 13.0 per 40 minutes, though his attempts will surely scale down in the NBA during his early years), he has the second-best true shooting percentage on the squad.
Another product of the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex, a veritable basketball factory, Toppin was a forward out of Faith Family Academy who was not much recruited. A few Division I offers, from Sam Houston, Arizona State, and Tulsa, were extended to him before he decided to commit to Richard Pitino and the New Mexico Lobos.
He has physically intimidated opponents since starting his season there, leading all MWC freshmen in a number of categories and making him a lock to take home the conference’s Freshman of the Year Award. Regardless of the age of the player assigned to protect him, he is a formidable guard who has already won nine times this season as Freshman of the Week.
Toppin’s offensive sense is another quality that makes him endearing; he always knows where to be and when. Considering that he pulls down the previously mentioned 9.0 boards per game (13.7 rebounds per 40 minutes), this accounts for a significant portion of his efficiency and rebounding statistics.
One of the guys whose advanced metrics stand out just as much as the eye test is Toppin. With an incredible 1.31 points per shot average, he is in the 97th percentile and is rated as “Excellent” in Synergy Sports’ points per shot measure.
Toppin is still averaging 1.28 PPG in the half court, so his stats aren’t boosted by transition takes. His strength and agility in the paint translate to a higher level, as does his ability to stay away from low-percentage shots. The 6-foot-9 stature is also not injurious.
With a 27.5 PER, he is second on the team in offensive rating (131.0), and top on the team in defensive rating (93.2). Despite being in the Association, Toppin won’t have any trouble swapping players 1 through 4, since he is a physically imposing player who can really lock up opponents.
He was unquestionably the best player on the floor against Boise State, scoring 21 points on 9 of 12 from the field, along with four offensive rebounds, two free throws made (2 of 2), three blocks, and two steals.
The term “menace” may be a fitting description of his defensive abilities, since his length truly causes problems for opposing ball handlers.
A three-point shot is the one addition Toppin could make to his repertoire that would completely alter the game. Though he only attempts roughly one three-pointer each game, he is by no means helpless in that regard, as he is already shooting 34.5% this season.
Toppin should ideally increase this to three or more deep shots every game and hit at least one of them. He would become a highly important offensive player who wouldn’t be dependent on any particular system if he could develop into a player who can shoot the ball with some respect.
Even in this next draft, Toppin has a solid first-round pedigree. Toppin is more than just an intriguing player because of his size, athleticism, rebounding, defense, feel, efficiency, and even his age—remember, he’s only a freshman.
He is a true star in the making, and it is clear what his position in the NBA will be as a defensive combo forward who can also grab rebounds, score some easy baskets, and occasionally make three-pointers.
It’s unclear if JT Toppin will turn pro or return to New Mexico, but scouts will be watching him closely for the foreseeable future.
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