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The LA Clippers and Dallas Mavericks, two teams that finished on the other side of the West bracket from the defending champion Denver Nuggets, will square off in Game 3 of the 2024 playoffs, which promises to be a thrilling matchup with the winner of the Oklahoma City Thunder-New Orleans Pelicans series.
Both are under intense pressure to get at least to the conference finals, some of which they self-imposed. The Mavericks do not own any of the first-round picks from 2027 through 2030 and owe the New York Knicks their 2024 selection, which is the final holdover from the doomed Kristaps Porzingis trade. In order to reorganise their squad around Luka Doncic, they traded all those picks and swap rights, including some that were effectively intended to reverse earlier transactional errors.
The Clippers do not control any of their own picks until 2030. They traded almost everything — including Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, now looming as a potential second-round foe — to pair Paul George and Kawhi Leonard. In four seasons so far, they have won three playoff series.
Two of those have come against Doncic and the Mavericks. These teams know each other very well. The amount of combined star power is staggering, all of it on the perimeter: six future Hall of Famers, including some of the greatest ball handlers and scorers in NBA history.
Yet all that scoring has translated into an ultraslow slog. Leonard missing the Clippers’ rousing Game 1 win in effect delayed the start of the chess match between these superstars and their point guards-turned-coaches. The real strategic back-and-forth begins Friday night.
It was as if the stars spent Game 2 eyeing and testing each other: If we do this, how will you respond on defense? It was deliberate, station-to-station basketball. They tried out tactics, poked at matchups, took inventory. It almost seemed like the manifestation of mutual respect — as if they know risking too much too soon, playing with too much cavalier freedom, invites an avalanche of scoring from the other side.
It was very much in keeping with the broader playoff climate so far. If you craved the return of grimy 1990s basketball, this postseason has been for you — at least outside the rollicking Miami Heat-Boston Celtics 3-point duel. In the regular season, the Knicks averaged about 96 possessions per game — the league’s slowest pace of play. All 16 playoff teams are averaging a lower figure, meaning all eight series are being played at a collective pace slower than the league’s slowest regular-season team.
Playoff teams have averaged 110 points per 100 possessions — a collapse from a leaguewide average of 115.3 in the regular season, per Basketball-Reference research. Shooting percentages have plummeted from 54.5% on 2s and 36.6% on 3s in the regular season to 52.0% and 34.5% in the playoffs. Eight of the 16 playoff teams have underperformed their expected effective field goal percentages based on the identity of shooters and the locations of the shot and of the nearest defender — several by huge margins — per Second Spectrum data.
Some of this is bad shooting luck that will turn, but the games have been slow and ultraphysical.
Slowed-down mismatch hunting is a staple of playoff basketball. It is a compliment to the quality of opposing team defenses — what you are left with when the pretty, choreographed stuff doesn’t work. The Clippers are built to win mismatch-hunting battles. The Mavericks, in theory, face a mismatch-hunting math problem: They have two perimeter scoring stars, and the Clippers have three. Two of the Clippers’ three stars are elite defenders too — Leonard and George. Both Mavericks scoring stars — Doncic and Kyrie Irving — have been considered average or worse on defense for most of their careers.
When all five are on the floor, one of the Mavs’ stars will have to guard one of the Clippers’ stars. The reverse is not necessarily true.
Both Leonard and George will guard Doncic plenty anyway, as their primary assignment or on switches. George has often been tasked with chasing Irving.
Leonard spent much of the second half in Game 2 guarding Doncic — at least early in possessions. The cost of that is losing the ever-present threat of Leonard’s help defense.
Leonard shot only 7-of-17 in his first game since March 31, but he looked healthy and bouncy. He snared four steals, including some trademark “Where did he come from?” horror movie villain swipes. Most of his five 3s — all misses — were good looks produced in rhythm. The Clippers hit just 5-of-17 on catch-and-shoot 3s in Game 2. Even Harden took them semi-willingly. If they generate the same quality of looks, they figure to hit more.
Whichever team first blends its system offense with its brilliant individual scoring will win this series. Each team can play both styles pretty well. The real magic happens when the two styles exist within the same possession, one flowing into the other so that it feels more organic and less strained.
Doncic has tortured the Clippers in the past — and specifically Ivica Zubac when he draws Zubac on switches. The Clippers have mostly refused to give Doncic that switch and leave Zubac on the Island of Step-Back 3s. They have mixed up tactics to keep Doncic guessing, but their closest thing to a default strategy has been keeping Zubac in the paint.
The idea is for Doncic’s man to get over the screen so he can’t jack 3s, and for Zubac to barricade the paint without help — leaving the Mavs’ shooters blanketed and Doncic to make tough in-between shots. Blitzing Doncic forces the ball out of his hands, but it also exposes easy passes that get the Mavs’ offense moving. Dropping Zubac back cedes Doncic a runway but forces him to create in tight confines.
In Games 1 and 2, you could see Doncic digesting this scheme. He knows it well. He also knows Clippers coach Ty Lue, ever the chess master, could abandon it without warning — and then bring it back. But after settling for fadeaway midrangers, Doncic began prodding that dropback scheme with more oomph — attacking Zubac at full speed, carving deeper into the lane, threading lobs to Dereck Lively II and Daniel Gafford, sucking help defenders away from shooters. The Mavs helped by having their centers screen for Doncic very high on the floor to extend his runway.
Perhaps Doncic and Irving could inject pace into the offense by running the two-man game with more urgency — earlier in the shot clock, with more head-down speed when Zubac hangs back. Lively and Gafford can help by setting bone-rattling screens — generating separation. Irving has hit a few 3s against the Clippers’ dropback scheme and has made the right reads when the Mavs have blitzed him.
The more interesting tactical battle starts when the Mavericks sit their rim-running centers and play Maxi Kleber there. That five-out alignment got Dallas to the conference finals two seasons ago. It remains in head coach Jason Kidd’s back pocket, and even in a down year for Kleber, it works.
The Mavs outscored opponents by 10 points per 100 possessions this season when Doncic and Kleber played without any Dallas centers on the floor, per Cleaning the Glass data. They are plus-24 in this series with Kleber as solo big man, per ESPN Stats & Information research. Zubac overwhelmed Gafford in Game 1. Gafford played only eight-plus minutes in Game 2 because of a back injury.
Those Kleber-at-center lineups do not have a real interior threat. Some opponents counter by switching everything. The Clippers might counter by dispensing with their centers and playing five guards — a look they flashed in Game 2, although mostly with Russell Westbrook instead of Terance Mann as the fifth player. Mann did not help his cause by passing up a wide-open corner 3 in the first half — a maddening wart in his game. Zubac has played so well when not in foul trouble that it’s not clear whether the Clippers gain anything by going small regardless of what Dallas does.
In the conference finals two years ago, the Phoenix Suns switched against the Kleber-at-center lineups and tried to play Doncic one-on-one — in fear of the damage he might inflict as a passer if they doubled him. Doncic could pick his matchup and go to work.
Doncic is too big for some defenders, too crafty for almost anyone. He got where he wanted to go against Phoenix and either scored inside or drew emergency help.
The Clippers aren’t having that. As soon as Doncic gets a matchup he likes, they are sending a double-team toward him above the 3-point arc. The effect looks the same — two players on Doncic, the rest defending 3-on-4 — but it is proactive where the Suns’ help was reactive. The Clippers want to hit first. If they are going to compromise their defense, they at least want to dictate terms — to know where and when the help is coming, and how to script their rotations from there.
If Dallas has to play its best defenders more to contain LA’s scorers, the Clips will try to force those guys — Dante Exum, Josh Green, Derrick Jones Jr., P.J. Washington — to hit 3s and make plays off the bounce. Those guys are capable. Exum and Green hit 49% and 38.5% on 3s — albeit on low volume. Jones hit just 34% on mostly wide-open 3s, but he attacks the paint when given space.
If those guys make enough shots, Dallas can win:
Amir Coffey is a stout defender, but the Clips won’t leave him alone against Doncic either — again sending the double before Doncic crosses the 3-point line.
The rotations out of that are shorter because Lively is in the game. But they still require Zubac to shift assignments, and that whirlwind can end with him in a bad matchup. The Mavs need to leave time on the shot clock to find that matchup and exploit it:
They can also install some cuts and flare screens to confuse the Clippers amid these rotations.
The Mavericks have been doing the same thing on defense when the LA stars target Doncic:
The Mavs double George before he can get going against Doncic and then rotate out of that — with Doncic sliding down to Powell. Powell roasts him, and Mann — who probably didn’t play enough in Game 2 — slices into the chaos for a putback jam.
Doncic defended well enough in Game 2 that the Mavericks might ease up on these doubles — at least against George.
Watch Doncic try to figure out whom to rotate toward after the Mavs again send a double-teamer to relieve him:
Doncic and Irving disagree for a split second about who should rotate onto Zubac; Zubac flashes open, and then seals Doncic in deep post position. But Harden catches the ball with only five seconds on the shot clock and fires. With more time, the Clips could have worked for a better shot.
Both teams tried to get out and run early in Games 1 and 2, only for the pace to slow. (Keep an eye on Doncic’s transition defense. He has done too much flat-footed reaching and lurching instead of running back.)
Expect both to reemphasize pace — including in how they run their half-court offense. Both got bogged down walking the ball up and engineering matchups. Getting into the action earlier and running everything with verve allows you to cycle through more stuff — hopefully landing in that sweet spot where motion offense and one-on-one play interact.
This Clippers set was promising:
Harden enters to Zubac, cuts middle and nails Leonard’s guy with a back screen — designed to get Irving switched onto Leonard. Harden then zooms into a two-man with Zubac. If Harden comes off with space, that’s fine. If not, Zubac is on his way to drill Irving — presenting the Mavericks two bad choices: switch Lively onto Leonard or allow Leonard to catch with Irving on his back. Leonard misses, but that’s a good shot. There is also enough time on the clock to transition into some other action that makes sense.
Irving was often the primary defender on Harden in Game 2. In that setup, Irving will be in the orbit of the Clippers’ pick-and-roll attack. The Clips probably did not squeeze enough juice from the Harden-Zubac pick-and-roll in Game 2. Run that early, get the defense scrambling, and see what kick-outs to George and Leonard become available — and where Irving ends up in the fray. The Harden-Leonard two-man game should be a natural weapon too.
The Clippers frittered precious possessions in Game 2 with George going one-on-one against Green and Jones — and little movement around him. George is a superstar, but those are two of the Mavs’ best defenders; the Clippers can do better. Even Harden isolating against Irving did not produce great offense.
Quick-hitting sets that spring stars into the post open up new passing angles. In the fourth quarter of Game 2, the Mavs ran the same set several times to get Doncic in the post against Harden:
There is no law that says the Clippers had to oblige and concede that switch of Harden onto Doncic. The prelude action was slow. The screens didn’t hit hard. The Clippers knew it was coming. Why not fight through?
But every counter unlocks counters for the opponent. Battling through that pick opens up fleeting windows for cuts and passes.
This series is really just beginning tonight. At some point, the dam will burst for one of these offenses — at least for a stretch. The how and when of that is the fun of the playoffs.
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