Here at CanucksArmy, we are still savoring The Thrill™. However, if you’re growing weary of Phil Kessel-related content, consider this article more of a general overview of late-season signings, as it serves that purpose just as effectively. For those who might have been out of the loop in the past week, Phil Kessel is currently in Abbotsford, practicing with the Canucks’ AHL affiliate, with hopes of securing an NHL contract with Vancouver soon. Based on his initial performance, it’s evident that Kessel will require some time to regain his peak form. Yet, the Canucks face a time crunch in making a decision on a contract, and in this article, we’ll elucidate why the timing is a delicate matter.
Everything hinges on the Trade Deadline. After this annual event, the 23-player roster restrictions are lifted, enabling teams to accommodate as many players as they can within the salary cap. However, there is a limit of four post-deadline, non-emergency recalls.
While it might seem like a viable strategy for the Canucks to wait until after the Trade Deadline and then sign Kessel, thus adding him to the roster without displacing anyone, this approach is not feasible. To be eligible to play in the playoffs during that season, a free agent must be signed to a contract before the Trade Deadline. If the Canucks aspire to have Kessel as the “ultimate playoff black ace,” they must sign him on or before March 8, 2024 – a deadline that is less than three weeks away as of now.
As highlighted earlier in the week by our own Jeff Paterson, there could be a potential complication. The Canucks’ current roster is at its maximum capacity of 23 out of 23 players. This count includes Jett Woo, who has been recalled and is currently occupying the injured Carson Soucy’s roster spot.
However, if the Canucks aim to include both Kessel and activate Soucy before the trade deadline, they will need to reassign both Woo and another player. The latter will be subject to waivers (Woo won’t unless he remains with the team for 30 days). The likely candidate for reassignment could be one of Mark Friedman, Phil di Giuseppe, Nils Åman, or Sam Lafferty. None of these players are individuals the Canucks would want to expose to the league so close to the postseason, where having depth is crucial.
If Kessel hasn’t seen game action in ten months, why not initiate his return in Abbotsford and then designate him as one of the four post-deadline call-ups or potentially wait until the conclusion of the regular season when unlimited recalls are permitted?
In terms of on-ice performance, Kessel should almost certainly begin with several AHL matches at this stage. Given his prolonged absence from play, merely practicing may not be sufficient, and introducing him into the NHL lineup in the next few weeks could be challenging to justify.
However, assigning Kessel to the AHL would necessitate him passing through waivers as well. Waivers are typically intricate, but to simplify, there’s an experience threshold beyond which a player, like Kessel with 1286 NHL games under his belt, always requires waivers to be demoted.
Some might believe there’s minimal risk of Kessel being claimed given his extended period without a contract, but there remains some level of risk. It’s worth dismissing the option of a conditioning stint, as a player must be on the active NHL roster before being sent on one, making it irrelevant in navigating the waivers process.
A plausible approach for the Canucks could involve signing Kessel to an AHL contract now, allowing him to regain game fitness by participating in Abbotsford games before the deadline. They could then finalize an NHL contract for him right at the deadline. However, if the Canucks’ roster is still at full capacity by that time, someone will need to be waived. If Kessel happens to be that someone, delaying the waiver process until after he’s back in game shape might elevate the chances of him being claimed. In fact, waiving any potential Canucks players closer to the deadline could increase the likelihood of them being claimed, as teams eyeing them would be on the brink of having unlimited roster space.
However, what the strategy of signing Kessel to an AHL contract for three weeks now and then transitioning to an NHL contract on March 8 primarily provides the Canucks is additional time rather than more choices. The only realistic avenue for the Canucks to include Kessel in their active roster before the Trade Deadline without risking the loss of any current roster players involves the use of the injured reserve.
For instance, if Soucy experiences another setback in his recovery and remains on IR until after the deadline, the problem resolves itself. Woo can be sent down, Kessel can assume his position on the active roster, and Soucy can make a return once the 23-player limits are lifted.
Alternatively, Soucy might return, but another player could be placed on the IR in the interim, resulting in a comparable outcome for the Canucks.
By opting to sign Kessel to an AHL contract initially and then transitioning to an NHL deal later, the Canucks afford themselves the opportunity to delay difficult decisions until absolutely necessary. However, any wait-and-see approach involves inherent risks, and careful consideration of all possibilities is essential—especially considering the potential addition of another player to the roster before the deadline, which could further complicate the situation.
Moreover, the entire scenario hinges on Kessel’s willingness to play games in the AHL. While his current participation with the Abbotsford team suggests a willingness, it’s worth noting that these would be his first AHL games since 2007.
In essence, the Canucks have various options, but the window for settling on these options is limited. The deadline to sign Kessel coincides with the day before unlimited roster space becomes available, a deliberate rule designed to prevent teams from strategically holding onto free agents throughout the season only to add them as reinforcements after the deadline.
However, the Canucks might still manage a comparable strategy if they play their cards right and time their moves appropriately.
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