The Dolphins are confronted with intricate choices as they aim to reduce their payroll by approximately $65-75 million before the commencement of the free agency period in March.
Every decision the Miami Dolphins make this offseason carries a ripple effect. Each contract negotiation, restructuring, and overall maneuver has implications that extend beyond the upcoming 2024 season, impacting the team’s financial landscape moving forward.
Facing a significant challenge, the Dolphins currently find themselves $52 million over the NFL’s projected salary cap. To rebuild and retool the 11-6 team from last year, the Dolphins must make strategic moves to shed between $65-90 million this offseason. This financial adjustment aims to enable the re-signing of their own free agents and the addition of new players who can contribute to ending the franchise’s 23-year playoff victory drought.
Examining the intricate decisions necessary to position Miami for the start of free agency on March 11:
Complex Choices:
1. Determine whether to grant Christian Wilkins a $100 million deal or utilize the franchise tag.
General Manager Chris Grier highlighted in his recent exit interview that Wilkins took a risk on himself, opting to play on his fifth-year option rather than accepting the Dolphins’ offer, and his stellar performance proved successful. Miami now faces the decision of either applying the franchise tag to the resilient defensive tackle by March 5, committing to a payment of $19.8 million, or negotiating a contract comparable to the five-year, $100-105 million extensions awarded to Quinnen Williams by the Jets and Jeffery Simmons by the Titans last offseason.
Decide whether to retain Terron Armstead for the entirety of 2024 or seek a replacement.
In his exit interview, Armstead alluded to the possibility of retirement, a consideration that seems reasonable given his perseverance through a myriad of injuries during his 11th season. However, the likelihood of him walking away from the guaranteed $14.2 million, particularly the $5 million already owed if he remains on the roster on March 16, appears slim. The Dolphins face limited flexibility with Armstead due to the contractual language and their restructuring of his deal last season for cap space. If Armstead were to retire, it would result in an additional $4.6 million in dead cap for Miami, necessitating the addition of a left tackle to an already extensive list of team needs. Complicating matters, Kendall Lamm, who started eight games last season, is also a free agent.
Is it prudent for Miami to persist in trading away early draft picks?
When queried about it last week, Grier refrained from committing to utilizing the Dolphins’ 2024 first-round pick, which stands at selection No. 21, on a rookie. This hesitancy is understandable considering that the first-round pick serves as a valuable bargaining chip for teams undergoing rebuilding processes, whereas for teams like the Dolphins focused on immediate success, its value may not be as significant.
Such teams often prefer trading draft picks for established players capable of making instant impacts. This approach is evident in Miami’s recent offseasons, where they traded away picks for talents such as Tyreek Hill, Bradley Chubb, and Jalen Ramsey. It is likely that Grier will explore the option of acquiring another proven star from a team in transition. Ultimately, the decision hinges on factors like the player’s suitability, fit within the team, and the associated cost, with the current information available being insufficient to make a conclusive judgment.
Balancing the Budget
Opt for the release or restructuring of Xavien Howard?
Certain decisions to trim the roster, such as the forthcoming release of Emmanuel Ogbah—a move that will free up a minimum of $13.7 million against the cap upon his waiver—are straightforward. However, others are more nuanced. Although Howard remains a skilled player, his performance hasn’t reached the level of an elite cornerback over the past two years. This raises concerns about justifying the $18.5 million slated for him in 2024, especially when the Dolphins could recover all of that money by designating him as a June 1 cut.
While Howard’s contract introduces some complications, including guaranteed money and roster bonuses, there is potential for reworking it if he expresses a desire to stay. The key questions are at what cost and, if Miami opts to part ways, who would step in to replace Howard, and what financial implications would that replacement bring for the Dolphins?
Opt for the Release or Restructuring of Jerome Baker?
Similar to Howard, Baker falls into the same category. As a six-year starter, he remains a valuable leader and a significant contributor to Miami’s defense in 2023. Baker is currently under contract for $11.1 million, and the Dolphins stand to recover $9.8 million if they choose to release him outright.
There’s a possibility that Baker, who posted 72 tackles, 1.5 sacks, and two interceptions in the 13 games he played in 2023, could consider re-signing for a deal akin to the two-year, $10 million contract held by fellow inside linebacker David Long Jr. However, it’s likely that Baker would prefer to explore free agency for the first time before committing to such an arrangement. The situation is further complicated by his knee and wrist injuries, which may impact his ability to pass a physical examination in March.
Decide whether to extend tenders to RFAs or expose them to the open market.
The Dolphins have two promising young players in offensive guard Robert Jones and safety Elijah Campbell, whom the team likely wants to continue investing in. However, financial constraints might hinder their ability to retain them through the tender process, which would cost $2.8 million per player with a right of first refusal tender.
Tenders must be submitted before the league year starts on March 13. Failure to do so would render the player an unrestricted free agent, free to sign with any team without consequences. It wouldn’t be surprising if Jones and Campbell receive one-year contract offers close to, or around, the NFL minimum of $1.05-1.1 million.
Securing the Core
Consider extending Tyreek Hill’s contract or opting for a restructuring?
Tyreek Hill currently boasts the most substantial contract among NFL receivers in terms of average salary, standing at $30 million. Miami could potentially generate much-needed cap space by restructuring his contract, potentially extending it by a year or two. In 2024, Hill is set to earn $19.8 million, and the Dolphins have the option to convert all of it into a signing bonus, thereby reducing his cap hit from $31 million to a range of $6-8 million.
It’s probable that Hill, who led the NFL in receiving yards, would seek additional guaranteed money and an extended duration for his contract, a typical negotiation for deals involving elite players. The only drawback to this approach would be if Miami is aware of Hill’s physical decline, questioning whether the All-Pro receiver can maintain an elite level in the NFL for another 2-3 seasons.
Consider extending Jalen Ramsey’s contract or opt for a restructuring?
Ramsey is set to receive a base salary of $14.5 million, coupled with an additional $11 million in roster bonuses, all guaranteed due to the contract restructuring he underwent for the deal with Miami last offseason. Beyond 2024, there is no more guaranteed money left in his contract, placing a 31-year-old, eight-year veteran in a challenging position, particularly after a season marked by a troublesome knee injury.
It wouldn’t be surprising if Miami decides to add a year or two to Ramsey’s contract, not only extending his tenure in South Florida but also creating some cap space. The crucial question lies in determining the annual compensation for the seven-time Pro Bowl selection. Ramsey received $10 million from Miami last season, and his current deal pays him $35.5 million for two seasons, averaging out to $17.7 million per year.
Should the Dolphins secure Tua Tagovailoa with a lengthy contract or have him play under his fifth-year option?
While the team is considering proposing a long-term extension to Tagovailoa, a key aspect is the timing of this commitment. Opting for a long-term deal this offseason would bring down his 2024 cap number, currently at $23.2 million due to Miami exercising his fifth-year option. To proceed, Miami and Tagovailoa’s representatives must negotiate an annual salary for the Pro Bowl selection in 2024, and a multi-year agreement could guarantee him a fixed price for three years (around $40-50 million per season).
Inking a multi-year contract in the upcoming spring or summer could also reduce his initial cap hit from $23 million to a range of $6-10 million, contingent on the deal specifics. The Dolphins are firmly committed to Tagovailoa, given his strong connection with coach Mike McDaniel, indicating that a long-term deal is likely, provided both parties agree on terms. However, the timing might be deferred until later in the summer, especially if the Dolphins require immediate cap relief.
Will Miami secure their standout players from the 2021 draft class?
This offseason poses financial challenges for Miami as they contemplate decisions regarding Jaylen Waddle, Jaelan Phillips, and Jevon Holland, the top three picks from the 2021 draft. The team has until May 2 to exercise the fifth-year options for Waddle ($15 million) and Phillips ($12.2 million), a move that seems highly likely.
While considering a multi-year deal for both players is an option, it necessitates immediate cap space, a resource Miami currently lacks. Holland, being a second-round pick, does not have the fifth-year option. His 2024 salary is set at $1.8 million, and his representatives may push for a multi-year contract reflecting a top-10 safety in the NFL, where 15 safeties earn $10 million or more per season in 2024, excluding potential free agency additions. It won’t be surprising if Holland follows the example of a holdout (or holding in like Wilkins) during the offseason program and training camp, aiming to influence the team’s decisions.
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