It looks like another mixed bag on the draft front from the 2023 class.
Could the Washington Commanders 2023 NFL Draft picks end up being one of the worst classes in the franchise’s illustrious history?
In case you’re the type who likes to just skim the first paragraph of a thousand articles, I’ll answer the title question right here. No – this is not the Washington Commanders’ worst draft class. Not yet, at least. But there is still time.
The Commanders entered the 2023 offseason knowing they needed to address several key roster holes. Most analysts had them going after help at cornerback, offensive line, linebacker, and tight end in the draft.
Last year’s draft class was seen as especially deep at cornerback, and not so deep at offensive line or linebackers. Consequently, a lot of us thought the Commanders would go for a corner in the middle of the first round and then follow up with a lineman.
I would guess that 75 percent of the mock drafts I did myself, or saw from others, had either Christian Gonzalez or Joey Porter Jr. going first. A large number then had John Michael Schmitz or O’Cyrus Torrence being selected in Round No. 2.
Of course, as it turned out, we were all wrong in our projections.
Washington chose to address the offensive line and linebacker through free agency by signing three mid-tier players. None of them – Andrew Wylie, Nick Gates, and Cody Barton – have performed particularly well this season.
Gates has been benched. Barton is ineffective. Wylie, the best of the lot, has been woefully inconsistent.
Washington chose not to address the tight end situation, preferring to rely on aging veteran Logan Thomas, in-line blocker John Bates, and second-year receiving threat Cole Turner. Again, the results have been underwhelming.
You all know by this point who the Commanders added through the draft. Much to everyone’s surprise, they doubled up on secondary help in the first two rounds, then went back-to-back on offensive linemen in rounds 3-4. They finished up with a couple of late-round edge rushers and a running back. And, as has been a hallmark of drafting during Ron Rivera’s tenure as head coach, they had much greater success finding players in the later rounds, while seeming to miss on a lot of their early picks.
That is not a recipe for success. It is one for mediocrity. Under Rivera, the Commanders were the virtual textbook definition of mediocrity before running off the rails this season.
The 2023 draft class is certainly not to blame for that. But they sure haven’t contributed much of anything to changing anything for the better.
Commanders 2023 draft picks and what came next
I said earlier that we were all wrong about how the Washington Commanders draft would unfold. But how wrong were we?
If you want to be honest about this, you have to look at your final mock draft and then check to see if your selections were available to Washington. Then you can consider whether the team would have been better off with your picks or with their own.
I’ll tell you upfront, I’m not nearly that honest. So instead, I just took a look at the players the Commanders chose and then looked at the next player selected at the same position. Here’s what you get:
- Round No. 1: Emmanuel Forbes (CB). Next chosen: Christian Gonzalez
- Round No. 2: Quan Martin (DB). Next chosen: Cam Smith (CB), Sydney Brown (S)
- Round No. 3: Ricky Stromberg (C/G). Next chosen: Jake Andrews (C), Anthony Bradford (G)
- Round No. 4: Braeden Daniels (OT/G). Next chosen: Carter Warren (OT), Jon Gaines (G)
- Round No. 5:: K.J. Henry (DE). Next chosen: Mike Morris
- Round No. 6: Chris Rodriguez Jr. (RB). Next chosen: Deuce Vaughn
- Round No. 7: Andre Jones Jr. (DE). Next chosen: Desjuan Johnson
I don’t rely on Pro Football Focus ratings exclusively. But I do like to check them out to get rough overviews of the entire league.
Commanders mid-to-late round value
Of the Washington Commanders’ seven draft picks in 2023, only one player is rated clearly above the player selected immediately after him at the same position. That is sixth-round pick Chris Rodriguez. Jr., who has been in on fewer than six percent of the team’s offensive plays this season.
But at least his Pro Football Focus rating is significantly higher than Deuce Vaughn’s. He is the microscopic pass-catching running back playing for the Dallas Cowboys.
Fifth-round pick K.J. Henry is in a virtual tie with Mike Morris of the Seattle Seahawks. The defensive end has at least been on the field more than his rookie counterpart, but he has still only played on just under 15 percent of the snaps this year primarily due to the Commanders’ decision to trade Montez Sweat and Chase Young before the deadline.
And the situation is pretty much the same with seventh-round pick Andre Jones Jr. and his fellow first-year-pro. Neither has played very much. The Los Angeles Rams’ Desjuan Johnson has been slightly more productive.
I am not counting the Philadelphia Eagles’ Moro Ojomo as a defensive end, though he was drafted as one. He will play tackle for Philadelphia. But if I did, he would also have a better PFF score than Jones.
So, at the bottom of the draft, Washington seems to have gotten about average value.
Commanders suspect early-round calls
In the early rounds, the Washington Commanders have been smoked.
It begins at the top where they opted for Emmanuel Forbes while virtually every analyst I know had Christian Gonzalez rated higher. The Oregon product got hurt a month into the season. Before that, he may have been the best rookie in the league.
He won the Defensive Rookie of the Month in September. The New England Patriots snapped him up right after the Commanders passed. Forbes, as you know, has struggled mightily and has been in and out of the lineup.
Quan Martin was a surprise pick in the second round. He was drafted as a safety but has played cornerback for Washington. The cornerback drafted after him – Cam Smith – has a significantly higher Pro Football Focus rating. Though to be fair, he has had trouble finding playing time behind a deep group of veterans on the Miami Dolphins.
Ricky Stromberg was drafted as a center, but as has become de rigueur here in Washington, was shifted to guard. He played a little bit as a backup before getting hurt and had a poor 44.5 grade. The next guard selected, Seattle’s Anthony Bradford, held up very well against Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne in the Seahawks’ victory over the Commanders earlier this year. His PFF rating is 59.2.
Braeden Daniels, a college tackle who also shifted to guard, hasn’t played this season. He was put on injured/reserve after an unimpressive training camp. That is the same fate of Jon Gaines, the first guard taken after him.
The next guard who has played some this season, Antonio Mafi of the Patriots, has one of the lowest PFF ratings I’ve ever seen. But he has played over 300 snaps. Daniels has played zero. I’m not sure what to do with that.
What I am sure of is that had the Commanders simply taken the next player at the position they drafted, they would be no worse off. They would probably be better just based on Gonzalez and Bradford.
It’s too soon to judge Commanders 2023 draft class
The truth is, we don’t know enough about any of these players to pass judgment yet. Several may turn out to be studs. A new coaching staff could work wonders – something that is almost sure to arrive this offseason once the Washington Commanders finally put current head coach Ron Rivera out of his misery.
Or they could simply boot them all out the door and begin anew. Another notion that cannot be dismissed entirely with a fresh set of ideas and eyes coming into the Commanders.
Because here’s what we do know. In 2023, a pivotal year for this particular coaching staff, they got virtually nothing out of their draft class. And they could have gotten more. That is a damning indictment of personnel evaluation at the worst possible time.
For the record, Washington’s two worst draft classes came in 1944, when of the 30 players selected, none lasted in the league past 1950. There’s also 2008 when Vinny Cerrato worked his magic and managed to turn four picks in the top 100 into nothing.
Several other Cerrato draft classes are in the running as are a few from the mid-‘60s (especially 1967), and 1992 (the Desmond Howard draft). We rule out the mid-‘70s because George Allen traded away all the picks.
Where will the 2023 class rank in the years to come? We don’t know for sure just yet.
Be the first to comment