The Los Angeles Rams have a chance to get over .500 for the first time all year, but must do it against a Super Bowl contender in the Buffalo Bills in Week 14. Buffalo won the last meeting between the teams in the 2022 NFL season opener, a game that we must never speak of again.
The Bills have surpassed all realistic offseason expectations thanks to a Herculean effort from superstar Josh Allen. This week, I spoke with Matt Byham from SB Nation’s Bills site Buffalo Rumblings to learn more about how Allen has adapted without Stefon Diggs, Joe Brady’s head coaching prospects and whether the team can give the Chiefs a run for their money.
Q – What else can you say about Josh Allen? Against the 49ers in Week 13, he became the first quarterback with a passing, rushing AND receiving touchdown in the same game. What changes have you noticed in Allen with Stefon Diggs no longer in Buffalo and where would you rank the star QB in the MVP race?
A – It’s been nine months but I could probably still write 3,000 words on Stefon Diggs. It’s been a relief no longer having to cover Diggs’ drama — well, at least that had become his norm in the final year and a half at One Bills Drive. It’s pretty clear that his headspace was ruining a fair number of things in the locker room. The GQ feature on Diggs did even less to warm the cockles of Bills Mafia.
Before, Allen and Diggs were akin to Rey and Ben Solo — perfectly matched but headed for certain disaster as two halves of a fatally flawed whole. They both obviously want to win, but Diggs didn’t appear content doing so unless he was a featured star in the outcome. It’s pretty evident that there was a bit of a leadership struggle between the two, as well.
Now, Allen has been tasked with taking those reigns and he’s done so with aplomb. This is Allen’s team, much the same as we’ve seen with the greats such as Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, and now Patrick Mahomes.
There’s been plenty of debate about this year’s NFL MVP race. Sure, Allen’s numbers are nowhere near as massive as in past seasons, but he’s never been more efficient and precise with his passes. He’s seeing the entire field, and reading defenses in ways he didn’t necessarily do before. Why? Before, the move was always “get the ball to Diggs, even when he’s covered.” The problem became that Diggs’ catch rate began to plummet (never mind mentioning the lack of efficiency from WR2 Gabe Davis), and there were very little yards after catch/contact.
As for the 2024 receivers room? Go ahead and try to name the Bills’ starting group. Even though fantasy football makes learning NFL rosters easier, there’s hardly a household name on the team — even considering wide receiver Amari Cooper, who is a complete 180 in personality from Diggs. The move this offseason was to diversify the receivers while ensuring they all shared one trait: YAC ability.
Concerning MVP: The voters made things messy last season when they selected Lamar Jackson. They essentially stated that wins are a QB stat, and that a few performances in premiere spots mattered more than how much the player impacted the team overall. Now this season, many seem unwilling to hear the same conversation where Allen’s name supplants Jackson.
Right now I feel Allen’s deserving of the honor simply because of what he’s done and what he means to the team. In his career, there might be three games where Allen’s play can be pinned on a loss. Three, in seven seasons.
Subtract Josh Allen from Buffalo’s roster and the team might win 4-5 games if they’re lucky. Now do the same with Lamar Jackson, then again with Derrick Henry, and even Saquon Barkley. This is not to take away from any of their seasons — especially Jackson’s Madden-esque season. However, if QB wins is a stat, then Jackson absolutely needs to be saddled with a less-than-MVP-worthy 8-5 record.
The Baltimore Ravens and Philadelphia Eagles have loaded rosters and likely don’t see a ton of regression losing them (Jackson or Henry — not both at the same time, of course). Even without Barkley, the Eagles still have Jalen Hurts running in 12-plus touchdowns. Consider Jared Goff, who’s been both really bad and really good. Goff’s weaknesses are held up by a loaded roster, such that he can toss five interceptions and still walk off the field victorious over the Houston Texans. And yes, Goff has played lights-out often in 2024, especially at home.
You have to have the right people in-house. Right? That’s a testament to the One Bills Drive’s front office, led by general manager Brandon Beane — as well head coach Sean McDermott and the genuine culture he’s instilled. I know Brady’s going to get plenty of interviews because you don’t lose the likes of Stefon Diggs and increase scoring production without other teams noticing. But other teams don’t have Josh Allen, and he won’t leave with Joe Brady. Furthermore, what is team “x’s” offensive line situation?
All one need do is look at what happened with Brian Daboll and the New York Giants. Daboll was the hot offensive coordinator after a tenure working with Josh Allen. Daniel Jones is very much not Josh Allen. Everyone thought Daboll was a quarterback whisperer who made Allen into the player he is today, but the truth is that Allen has always been that player.
Okay, okay… how has Brady transformed the roster? Brady’s doing some really interesting thing with conceptual football that requires players knowing concepts and overall functions of every play instead of just their 1/11th. It’s been said that Brady prefers positionless offensive football, where a receiver can be both wide, or in the slot on any given down. The target distribution is vastly different, both because of necessity and design. It wasn’t going to work having a guy like Diggs demand 65% or more of the target share because Brady wants to keep defenses guessing where the ball is headed. Through 12 games in 2024, the Bills’ target share is thus:
WR targets: 196 (57.5%)
RB targets: 57 (16.7%)
TE targets: 88 (25.8%)
Now compare those numbers to Buffalo’s 2023 regular-season target figures (Dorsey 10 games / Brady 7):
WR targets: 250 (61%)
RB targets: 65 (15.9%)
TE targets: 95 (23.2%)
What stands out most is the drop in wide receiver targets. Last season, even though Brady had seven games and a postseason to call the offense, he was running Dorsey’s system. Brady also expects his guys to leave their egos at the door. Since early in the offseason, their mantra have been that “everybody eats.” That’s true only if people don’t get upset when they don’t eat, or when their plate is identical to their peers.
Q – Several media outlets predicted a rough year for the Bills given all the departures this offseason. Despite the changes made across the roster, Buffalo clinched its franchise-record fifth consecutive AFC East title with five games remaining. How have the Bills seemingly defied expectations in 2024 and what is your confidence level in this team making a deep playoff run?
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