predicting Alabama football’s worst-case 2024 season outcome
The 2024 college football season will present a number of difficulties for the Alabama Crimson Tide football team. A few broad adjustments, including the College Football Playoffs’ 12-team expansion and the SEC’s inclusion of the Oklahoma Sooners and Texas Longhorns, will have an effect on the programme. The largest alteration, though, originates from within: Nick Saban’s resignation.
In order to succeed Nick Saban as head coach of the Crimson Tide, Kalen DeBoer resigned from his position as head coach of the Washington Huskies. Few people would be jealous of his situation, as he has to take over for one of the greatest players in sports history right away and inherit a squad that is more than capable of winning a national title.
With such significant adjustments, as well as some significant losses and player churn, many question whether Alabama will still be at the top of collegiate football in 2024. Although we’ve previously discussed our game-by-game predictions for Alabama football in 2024, it’s now time to address the possibility of what the season might hold if DeBoer and the Tide fail.
Remember that these are only hypothetical outcomes for a season in which Alabama makes significant negative strides; they are not genuine predictions. In the worst-case scenario, these are my game-by-game predictions for Alabama football in 2024.
Western Kentucky (Aug. 31)
Alabama is going to look to make a statement in the debut of the DeBoer era in Tuscaloosa. Though Western Kentucky will likely come out swinging, I doubt the Crimson Tide will let this game get too close. Even in a worst-case scenario, Alabama still has the talent to win this Week 1 matchup.
Prediction: WIN
Record: (1-0)
USF (Sept. 7)
In 2023, Alabama made the trip down to Tampa to face USF, and it was an interesting game from start to finish. Jalen Milroe didn’t see any playing time, there was a hefty weather delay due to strong storms and it was the Crimson Tide defense that kept the team in the game. For Alabama fans, it was too close for comfort. With this game being in Tuscaloosa, I’d imagine the Crimson Tide would not want a repeat of what happened last season to take place in Bryant-Denny Stadium in front of its own fans. In a worst-case scenario, I think Alabama earns the win, but it’s still closer than fans would expect.
Prediction: WIN
Record (2-0)
@ Wisconsin (Sept. 14)
Alabama travels north to Madison, Wisconsin to take on the Wisconsin Badgers in Big Ten country. While you may expect this to be a loss if we are guessing what would occur in a horrible season for the Crimson Tide, we are keeping things realistic. This game, if Alabama doesn’t show up to win, could be interesting down to the final few minutes of the game. However, we will give this one to the Tide.
Prediction: WIN
Record: (3-0)
Georgia (Sept. 28)
Alabama hosts the Georgia Bulldogs after going undefeated a quarter of the way through the season. While fans may be excited to hear that the team hasn’t lost a game yet, this could be the start of a dangerous stretch for DeBoer and his team In my predictions for the 2024 season, I have Georgia winning this game with a final score of 27-21. In a worst-case scenario, Kirby Smart may look to make a statement and run the score up, leading to Alabama falling at home for the first loss of the season by double digits.
Prediction: LOSS
Record: (3-1)
@ Vanderbilt (Oct. 5)
The last time Alabama went to Nashville to take on the Vanderbilt Commodores, the Crimson Tide almost put up 60 points and the defense shut them out. Though Alabama is not the team it used to be in this scenario, I still firmly believe the Crimson Tide can win this game.
Prediction: WIN
Record: (4-1)
South Carolina (Oct. 12)
Shane Beamer and the South Carolina Gamecocks disappointed in the 2023 season after finishing 2022 with some exciting wins. Unless there has been significant improvement across the board with this team, the expectation is that they will remain near the bottom of the conference. For that reason, even if Alabama isn’t the strongest team in the conference, the Tide will earn a win here.
Prediction: WIN
Record: (5-1)
@ Tennessee (Oct. 19)
Where were you when Josh Heupel and the Tennessee Volunteers earned its first win over the Crimson Tide in almost two decades? In 2022, Alabama fell to the Vols in Knoxville, which led to a goal post being torn down and taken out of the stadium. Tennessee may not be viewed by many as a title contender in 2024, but the talent and coaching staff still ranks high in the SEC. The mere thought of losing to Tennessee on the Third Saturday in October leaves a bad taste in any Crimson Tide fans mouth, which is why it’s reasonable to have Alabama losing this game in a worst-case scenario.
Prediction: LOSS
Record: (5-2)
Missouri (Oct. 26)
If you are a college football fan and don’t have the Missouri Tigers on your radar heading into the 2024 season, I’d advise you to do some research and get familiar with this team. It’s perfectly reasonable for confident Alabama fans to feel a bit uneasy about this game. In this scenario, we are giving this one to the Tigers. Back-to-back losses may make it seem like the season is far from over, but it might manage to get worse from here.
Prediction: LOSS
Record: (5-3)
@ LSU (Nov. 9)
A road game in Death Valley is daunting no matter which team you cheer for or what coach is on the sidelines. Brian Kelly’s LSU Tigers may have lost some starting talent, especially in Heilman-winning quarterback Jayden Daniels, but he’s proven that he is a coach that is capable of turning teams around and adjusting when necessary. In a worst-case scenario, we will say this game is a close one, but that the experience of playing in such a hostile environment rattles DeBoer in his first season as an SEC coach.
Prediction: LOSS
Record: (5-4)
Mercer (Nov. 16)
Mercer will try its best to do some damage against the Crimson Tide, but I don’t think this game will creates any issues for Alabama. A needed boost that renders the Tide bowl eligible before a tricky final two games of the regular season.
Prediction: WIN
Record: (6-4)
@ Oklahoma (Nov. 23)
The Oklahoma Sooners are newcomers to the SEC in 2024 and will get to take on the face of the conference at home. Given the fact that this is a road game and could be up for a primetime showing, the pressure will be on both teams. Home-field advantage is real and it could be the difference-maker in a game like this if the Crimson Tide is in tail end of an ugly season.
Prediction: LOSS
Record: (6-5)
Auburn (Nov. 30)
In Nick Saban’s final season as the Alabama football head coach, the Iron Bowl took place at Jordan-Hare and ended in dramatic fashion, as is the norm when the Auburn Tigers host Alabama. DeBoer has the privilege of coaching his first Iron Bowl in Tuscaloosa. However, Hugh Freeze has had an opportunity to strengthen his roster and get comfortable in the program. If it took Alabama a miracle play to win last season’s matchup, what will it take in 2024 if the Tigers improved and the Crimson Tide significantly regressed? I’m not sure, but I think there’s a good chance they get it done. DeBoer starts his tenure in Tuscaloosa with an Iron Bowl win and finishes the regular season with a victory over his new program’s rival.
Prediction: WIN
Record: (7-5)
In the worst possible scenario for DeBoer and the Alabama football program in the first season without Nick Saban, the team still finishes above .500 and reaches a bowl game, but it’s a steep fall from the top. Is this likely to happen? No. While Saban may call it “rat poison,” the Crimson Tide program has too strong of a foundation to fall to a 7-5 record. This should open the eyes of many Alabama fans, though, who believe the Tide is invincible and will sail smoothly throughout the 2024 season after undergoing such major changes. The program has a new look and feel to it, the roster is far from the same, there’s a new coach roaming the sidelines and the game on a national level has gone through significant modifications.
Taking all of that into account and the fact that the Crimson Tide’s schedule is difficult, Alabama is in for a tough season that could easily get out of hand. However, it also presents a great opportunity to build up one of the most impressive College Football Playoff resumés in the nation. The ceiling is high and the floor is low for this team in 2024.
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