I believe you’re talking about Oregon State and Washington State’s potential conference affiliation.
This week, rumors circulated on social media that the Big 12, acting on behalf of ESPN, might invite the Cougars and Beavers to join.
Ignore the scuttlebutt, is our advise.
“The Big 12 is not interested in them,” a person in the business who is aware of Commissioner Brett Yormark’s approach stated.
A further source described the rumors as “boggling.”
According to a third, there has been no meaningful discussion about the Big 12’s further westward expansion with university authorities.
Of course, the colleges would include kickoffs in the Pacific Time Zone in the list of media rights for the Big 12. However, don’t you think that when Yormark and ESPN officials turned down the Cougars and Beavers’ membership offer last summer, they took it into consideration?
Furthermore, Big 12 universities would never consent to lesser distributions of media rights, which implies the following:
• The Cougars and Beavers would be at a severe competitive disadvantage as they would have to join the conference as half- or quarter-share members.
• In order to pay for the additions, ESPN and/or Fox would need to spend at least $75 million, something they were not required to do last summer.
Furthermore, rather than expanding, the Big 12’s present priority is integrating the Four Corners schools. Officials from the conference and campus wish to evaluate the 16-school system before focusing on 18 or more.
And if the Big12 does grow, the top targets would be ACC universities, beginning with Clemson and Florida State, if they are accessible and willing.
Stated differently, it makes no sense to add WSU and OSU.
Having said that, we must offer a warning: things could change if the ACC collapses during the next 12 to 36 months. For the Big 12, the SEC, the Big Ten, and the entire major conference system, it might alter.
However, as things stand, the Cougars and Beavers have little chance of making the Big 12, with four power conferences still in place.
That’s why the two-year grace period is so important—it gives them time to allow the landscape to change.
If the presidents had the patience to hold off until after the 2023 football season, what kind of media contract would the Pac-12 have gotten? — @draywilson29
Although the Hotline has already discussed this subject, it merits revisiting in light of Sunday being the one-year anniversary of the Pac-12’s collapse.
The conference probably would have remained intact if the schools had been ready to take a risk and postpone the media rights talks until the winter of 2023–2024.
When former commissioner George Kliavkoff presented his proposal to the presidents one month before to kickoff, the Pac-12’s media value was significantly lower than it was in December 2023, following an incredible regular season with elite teams and fantastic TV numbers.
We believe there would have been a contract available with significant linear exposure and an average valuation of $35 million per school.
That situation, however, could only have occurred in a different reality as Kliavkoff was unable to keep the schools together for six more months and the presidents were under extreme pressure to seal a media deal.
By then, faith in his leadership had evaporated.
Though it’s a topic worth thinking about, it’s ultimately unimportant.
What knowledge do you have regarding the Pac-12’s possible legal action against ESPN and Fox? – Jimmy0726
It would be a grave miscalculation, and as far as we are aware, there has been no significant progress in that direction.
Despite the anger in Pullman and Corvallis regarding the part the networks played in the collapse of the Pac-12 (we believe Fox is far more at fault than ESPN), the Cougars and Beavers need to be forgiven.
Why? Because WSU and OSU need to agree to a media rights agreement sometime in the next 12 to 18 months (starting in the fall of 2026) regardless of whether they decide to rebuild the league or join the Mountain West. Furthermore, Fox is more likely than ESPN because it already has a contract with the MW that ends in the summer of 2026.
It is preferable for the Cougars and Beavers to keep any grievances out of the court system.
The idea that Washington should get half of the Big Ten media income has been discussed a lot. In what way is it similar to the previous Pac-12 arrangement that we declined? — @RockDawg3
Apple’s final offer would have guaranteed each school $25 million, with the possibility of more if specific subscription tiers were met throughout the contract duration, multiple sources told the Hotline last year.
(Our understanding: It would have just taken a few years to reach the lowest echelons.)
Over the course of the six-year arrangement, the Huskies will get around $32.5 million a year on average as a half-share member in the Big Ten.
In addition, the Big Ten provides extensive exposure on linear television (except from a few games on Peacock), while the Apple contract probably would have limited the coverage to streaming.
The Huskies made their choice based on what would be most advantageous for the football program going forward. Was it obliging? It’s possible to argue in favor of collaborating with the world’s most powerful media organization.
However, we don’t hold UW accountable for turning down Kliavkoff’s offer. We don’t hold any particular university accountable for the conference’s downfall. Due to several strategic errors, the collapse took several years to come to pass.
When can Stanford and Cal best negotiate a cheap exit from the ACC contract and plead with Oregon State and Washington State to allow them to rejoin the Pac-12? — @DrDreNoCal
According to what we’ve read of Cal’s membership letter, the Bay Area institutions won’t be able to leave the ACC until the summer of 2036.
Granted, that is presuming the ACC remains in place until the summer of 2036.
Should Clemson and Florida State manage to break free from the grant-of-rights agreement, North Carolina will undoubtedly do the same, leaving the ACC without its three most valued institutions. By then, the Pac-12 would very possibly fall apart, giving Cal and Stanford the opportunity to rejoin a reorganized conference.
One more crucial piece of information that should be mentioned is that ESPN’s contract purports to include an escape option in 2027, provided that the network notifies the ACC by February 2025.
Unless Florida State and Clemson are successful in their attempt to violate the grant-of-rights agreement and withdraw from the conference, we do not anticipate ESPN terminating the relationship.
How much financial disaster did the two Los Angeles institutions cause the league as a whole, given the departure of USC and UCLA and the Hotline news about Cal and Stanford having a huge budget hole? – JoeInOregon87
Oh my goodness, that’s a difficult subject that might easily take up a thousand words in a column.
Here, we’ll try to keep things simple by making the assumption that The TV rights deal that would have resulted from USC and UCLA being in the Pac-12 would have probably earned each school at least $40 million a year, if not more.
Which universities will profit that much from their new conferences’ media deals?
The only two Big Ten schools that receive $60 million to $65 million a year are USC and UCLA. (Note: The UC Regents have mandated that the Bruins pay $10 million to Cal for the next three years at the very least.)
The circumstances for everyone else are as follows:
• The Big Ten will give an average of $32.5 million to Oregon and Washington.
• The Big 12 is expected to pay the Four Corners institutions an average of $31.7 million.
• For the first seven years of their membership in the ACC, Cal and Stanford will receive about $10 million a year.
Thus, in their new conferences, the eight schools who left the Pac-12 last summer would receive lower salaries for media rights than they would have in the Pac-12 as a whole.
Is it possible to resume the Friday Hotline mailbag? It sounds good, that’s all. — Terry Terry 79
This week’s mailbag was postponed by one day in order to accommodate our series on Pac-12 colleges beginning their new eras.
The release started with three unconventional ideas for the Big 12 football schedule then went on to examine the financial difficulties that Stanford and Cal are encountering in the ACC.
We then looked at the leadership style of Big Ten Commissioner Tony Petitti and his connection to Greg Sankey of the SEC.
Lastly, the Hotline provided an update on the most recent events involving OSU and WSU.
The mailbag will resume on Friday morning of next week at its regular time.
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