Until proven otherwise, the Dodgers appear to be an easy National League favorite after signing Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Here’s how the Braves could keep up.
The Atlanta Braves, after a disappointing NLDS exit in 2023 that mirrored a similar result in 2022, have to prove their regular season riches can convert into postseason success in 2024. Doubts are already mounting that general manager Alex Anthopoulos has built a team that can find postseason success, and those will only get louder if the Braves can’t get to the National League Championship Series or deeper in 2024.
Already, there’s some trepidation over what 2024 may bring based on the scale of the Braves’ offseason moves relative to some of its likely NL playoff rivals. The Phillies re-signed Aaron Nola, who the Braves wanted. The Dodgers added not only Shohei Ohtani, but also Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the two hottest commodities on the free agent market this year.
Meanwhile, Atlanta has made minor moves. Atlanta sent out Kyle Wright, bringing back Jarred Kelenic, Marco Gonzalez, and Evan White. There’s a general expectation that the Braves might flip some of those players for an addition to its starting rotation.
A trade seems inevitable for Atlanta, and if that comes to fruition, here are three players they’ve been connected to that would get things right and keep them firmly in that upper tier of the NL.
Framber Valdez
Framber Valdez was a key part of the Astros’ 2022 World Series victory and the ace of the rotation in 2023. The Astros don’t plan to trade Valdez this winter according to Bob Nightengale, but they are listening to offers.
Straightaway, MLB experts are tabbing the Braves as a possible suitor. With the Braves acquiring tradeable assets, they might be able to pile up a trade package that’s tough to deny. Clearly, it’s going to take a haul to convince the Astros they should trade Valdez before the season starts.
Valdez in any given year could be a reasonable pick to win a Cy Young award, so adding him to an already fearsome starting rotation would certainly alleviate some of the concerns Atlanta saw rearing in the NLDS regarding pitching.
As for how he would fit this rotation, he’d bring a needed high ground ball rate. His GB% in 2023 checked in at 55.2 percent, better than any member of the Braves rotation except for Max Fried. Valdez boasts a fiery-hot fastball that sets up an occasionally-used changeup and an above-average curve.
Shane Bieber
Jim Bowden tossed Shane Bieber out as a possible trade target for the Braves several weeks ago, and it’s not hard to see how he might fit in for Atlanta.
On the whole, the Braves starting rotation was good in 2023, but had to work with men on base on a somewhat frequent basis. Of all starting rotations, the Braves had the seventh-highest walk rate at 8.8 percent according to FanGraphs. One possible suitor who could help clean that up is Shane Bieber, whose 6.4 percent walk rate was better than any member of the starting rotation aside from Fried, and is in the 80th percentile for walk rate in MLB.
Bieber, like Valdez, also boasts a decent walk rate. Unlike Valdez, Bieber’s fastball is a little slower than average, but has considerably more movement than average.
It’s hard to get a feel for how available Bieber is on the trade market. The Guardians don’t seem to be openly or widely shopping their ace pitcher, but discussions with various National League teams indicate they’re certainly willing to listen to creative ideas on him.
Dylan Cease
Dylan Cease to the Braves may just be the most telegraphed move of the 2023 offseason, if it comes to bear. A Cease trade was thought to be imminent ahead of the Winter Meetings in December, but he has remained unmoved to this point. The Braves were reported as favorites by Bob Nightengale.
Atlanta is a logical suitor with a need for help in their starting rotation, and their accrual of players that could be sent out in a possible trade with the White Sox gestured toward the possibility of a deal between the two teams.
The Sox are in a tough spot. Competitive just a few years ago, they’ve struggled to capitalize on momentum and missed the playoffs the last two seasons, accruing just 61 wins in 2023. With that, the team is looking to both shed payroll and acquire talent to stage a full-on rebuild, meaning Cease is likely to get traded.
Other possible landing spots for Cease — like the Dodgers and Orioles — have filled out their rotation with other moves. The Braves, though, remain a possibility. Patience here could pay off for the front office as they might be able to get Cease cheaper than they otherwise would have been able to in early December.
Cease still could wind up elsewhere, but until he’s officially moved elsewhere, he feels destined for the ATL.
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