Following the record-breaking $700 million deal that Shohei Ohtani inked with the Los Angeles Dodgers, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, a fellow Japanese-born player, is the next most anticipated free agency signing.
The Orix Buffalos, Yamamoto’s Nippon Professional Baseball team, posted him. The 25-year-old right-hander is allegedly visiting with potential teams this week, most likely the Blue Jays, according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand. Despite having no Major League Baseball experience, there is talk in the business that Yamamoto’s deal may be worth $300 million, in addition to a roughly $50 million posting fee that would go to his Japanese team.
The Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, Giants, and Red Sox are among Yamamoto’s primary suitors, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. As you may have observed, the Blue Jays are not one of them. The Blue Jays are strong in starting pitching, so this offseason, the front staff has not prioritised adding a starter in favour of pursuing two or four position players.
Nevertheless, the Blue Jays are keen to sign an impact player following their fruitless chase of Ohtani. That’s Yamamoto’s profile, and with all the talk about his potential, he may be another one of the Blue Jays’ aces in addition to Kevin Gausman.
Although Toronto doesn’t need another starter, adding one, especially one of that calibre, would provide them more options when it comes to dealing away from their starting pitching depth in order to add an impact hitter or two and cover any roster gaps. Keeping everything in consideration, let us examine the possible contributions of Yamamoto to the Blue Jays and the implications of his signing for the remaining players on the squad.
Who is Yoshinobu Yamamoto?
Yamamoto has pitched for seven seasons in NPB, Japan’s professional league that’s generally considered the best outside of North America. Yamamoto’s ERAs over the last three seasons — 557 2/3 innings — were 1.39, 1.68 and 1.16.
Even though the right-hander hasn’t pitched in a five-man rotation (NPB teams generally use six-man rotations and starters usually throw just once a week) or for a North American pro team, he’s viewed as accomplished, competitive, athletic and perhaps one of the best pitchers to ever come out of Japan, drawing comparisons to Pedro Martinez. He measures in at 5-foot-10, which is on the shorter side for an MLB pitcher, but he’s been mostly healthy throughout his career and his height doesn’t seem as though it’ll pose limitations.
What is his arsenal?
Yamamoto throws four pitches — a fastball, splitter, curveball and cutter — while also possessing elite to above-average command, according to a close analysis by The Athletic’s Eno Sarris. And, as it turns out, the characteristics of two of his pitches closely resemble those of two Blue Jays pitchers.
According to Sarris, Yamamoto’s four-seam fastball tops out at 99 mph and sits at 95. Interestingly, one of the comps for his fastball is Gausman’s because of similar movement and velocity, as well as a low release height. Like Gausman, Yamamoto throws a splitter, although Sarris writes that Yamamoto’s has “more drop, the same horizontal movement, and five miles per hour more velocity than Gausman’s splitter.” Gausman’s splitter is widely considered the best in MLB — and Yamamoto’s has a chance to be better.
Yamamoto also throws a curveball that has an elite spin rate with a 65-inch drop along with a 77-mph release speed. And yet again, there is a Blue Jays connection. Sarris notes, based on movement and velocity, one comp for Yamamoto’s curve is Chris Bassitt’s. Finally, Yamamoto’s cutter ranks as his worst pitch and may not factor much into his repertoire.
After analyzing Yamamoto’s World Baseball Classic stats, Sarris concluded: “We can say with a tiny bit more certainty that he’s like a Gausman with Bassitt’s curve and (Zach) Eflin’s command, which would be a dominant combination.”
How would Yamamoto fit on the Blue Jays?
Clearly, as a hybrid of Gausman and Bassitt, Yamamoto would fit in splendidly with the Blue Jays. Just imagine the scene: Gausman, Bassitt and Yamamoto huddled up to talk pitch grips under a sunny Dunedin, Fla., sky at spring training, with Yusei Kikuchi in the middle of it all as a helpful translator. What other team could offer such synergy?
More seriously, though, if all the scouting reports are correct, Yamamoto is primed to become MLB’s newest ace. If he were to join the Blue Jays rotation, he’d be at the top alongside Gausman leading an already strong group that includes Bassitt, Kikuchi and José Berríos. The Blue Jays rotation had a 3.85 ERA last season, second in the American League only to the Minnesota Twins. Adding Yamamoto to the mix would likely make them the best starting five in the majors.
Another benefit to the Blue Jays acquiring Yamamoto? It means neither the Yankees nor the Red Sox will. New York has already improved significantly with deals to acquire outfielders Juan Soto, Trent Grisham and Alex Verdugo. With Aaron Judge and Gerrit Cole, as well, the team is better positioned to improve on their fourth-place finish last season and compete with the Orioles, Rays and Jays for the AL East division.
The Red Sox, meanwhile, are coming off back-to-back last-place finishes and have made mostly clever deals around the margins. New GM Craig Breslow may be looking for a big swing. In either case, the Blue Jays could play spoiler to the Yankees and Red Sox in their pursuit of Yamamoto.
What trade possibilities would Yamamoto open up?
As mentioned, the Blue Jays are operating from an area of depth when it comes to starting pitching. If they were to sign Yamamoto, it would open up the possibility of using some of that depth to acquire an impact bat via a trade.
Alek Manoah has been mentioned as a trade candidate, and while the Blue Jays don’t appear eager to move him at the moment, should they acquire another starter it would make him more superfluous on their depth chart.
Of course, Manoah is coming off his worst season after posting a 5.87 ERA in 19 starts and being optioned to the minors twice. His value may be at its lowest but Manoah is also only a year removed from being a Cy Young finalist, so teams would likely be willing to bet on a turnaround for a player with four years of team control remaining. Still, the Blue Jays may have to package him with some of their other top prospects to receive impact back.
If the Blue Jays had a fearsome five-man rotation, with all of Gausman, Berríos, Bassitt and Yamamoto locked up for future seasons, perhaps parting with a young arm like Bowden Francis or even top prospect Ricky Tiedemann for a third baseman and/or corner outfielder would be more palatable. (Of course, moving Tiedemann would require a significant piece back.)
This is purely speculation, but what if the Blue Jays offered the St. Louis Cardinals — still in need of pitching — a package centred around Manoah and Tiedemann that could garner a return centred around Lars Nootbaar or Nolan Gorman and Dylan Carlson or Alec Burleson?
The Blue Jays could, in theory, also sign another starter like top free agents Jordan Montgomery or Blake Snell and pull off a similar strategy, but given his potential and age, Yamamoto delivers the most impact and would give them the star acquisition they’re seeking this offseason.
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