The Atlanta Braves face a significant decision.
The Atlanta Braves are confronted with a pivotal decision concerning their starting pitching.
It’s no secret that the Braves have faced challenges in retaining their key players, with notable departures such as Freddie Freeman heading to the Los Angeles Dodgers and Dansby Swanson making a move to Wrigley Field in the Windy City. Now, the question arises: could another star player bid farewell to Atlanta in free agency?
The team’s ace pitcher, Max Fried, is poised to enter free agency after the culmination of the 2024 season. Having agreed to a $15 million contract for the upcoming season through arbitration, Fried, who will turn 31 in 2025, stands as one of the premier pitchers in MLB. His impressive career record boasts 62 wins and 26 losses with a 3.03 ERA, having participated in 139 games and striking out 697 hitters.
Fried’s stellar performance continued last season in Atlanta, concluding with an 8-1 record and a 2.55 ERA. Over that span, he struck out 80 batters while issuing only 18 walks. The looming question now is the financial commitment required to retain Fried in free agency. Speculation arises that his new contract might command a similar Average Annual Value (AAV) to that of Aaron Nola, who secured a seven-year, $172 million contract with the Phillies.
I anticipate that Fried’s contract will mirror Nola’s, given their roles as ace pitchers for their respective teams and their similar ages. Nola is slated to earn $24.6 million annually with the Phillies starting in 2024. Interestingly, it’s worth noting that Alex Anthopoulos, the Braves’ decision-maker, offered Nola even more money in an attempt to lure him away from Philadelphia. This demonstrates the financial capacity of the Braves to accomplish their objectives, although it remains uncertain whether monetary considerations alone will be sufficient.
Similar to Freddie Freeman, Max Fried hails from the West Coast. Born in Santa Monica, California, he played high school baseball in North Hollywood. Many analysts speculate that Fried may choose to return closer to home in free agency, with potential destinations including the Dodgers, Angels, Giants, or Padres. The Dodgers, known for their substantial financial resources for starting pitchers, could be a formidable contender, and the Padres and Giants are likely to join the bidding competition.
Ultimately, the decision hinges on how much the Atlanta Braves value Fried. The team has promising younger pitchers like Darius Vines and Hurston Waldrup on the verge of making a mark in the major leagues. The question is whether the front office values the potential contributions of these emerging talents more than what Fried has demonstrated over his nearly eight-year career.
While there is a hopeful desire for the Braves to retain Fried, as it would be gratifying to see a beloved player remain in Atlanta, the prospects of this scenario unfolding seem uncertain.
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