The Calgary Flames and their provincial foe have only exchanged a small number of deals.
The Edmonton Oilers and the Flames made their inaugural transaction in 2010 when the Flames acquired current Ottawa Senators general manager Steve Staois in exchange for Aaron Johnson and a 2011 third-round pick. After three seasons, the Oilers traded Laurent Brossoit and Roman Horak to the Flames in exchange for Ladislav Smid and Olivier Roy.
Prior to the 2019 season, they made their most recent deal, which was essentially a cap exchange. James Neal was traded by the Flames to the Oilers in return for Milan Lucic and a conditional draft pick. Right now, only two of the three deals’ players are still in the National Hockey League; All of that being said, it seems that a fourth trade—involving Chris Tanev joining the Oilers—is on the horizon.
The case for the Oilers
The Oilers will ultimately require an improvement on the right side of their defence.
The core of Edmonton’s defensive is ok. While Brett Kulak and Vincent Desharnais, their third combination, performs admirably, Mattias Ekholm and Evan Bouchard are unquestionably the best duo. However, because Cody Ceci is a one-dimensional defensive defenseman, their second combination of Darnell Nurse and Ceci is not the best. is the backup goalie for the Winnipeg Jets, while Lucic is still with the Boston Bruins.
Ceci’s greatest Oiler season, which he set in 2021–22 with five goals and 28 points in 78 games, is already behind him with 11 assists in 40 games. Ceci has a fairly respectable goal share of 50.88% during five-on-five play, compared to an expected goal share of 52.07%.
Ceci has played 223:40 minutes, or 33.5% of his ice time, against elite players, according to Woodmoney. With 33.6% of his ice time against top players, this is the second-most amount that Ekholm has played against. Additionally, Ceci has killed the second-most penalties in 2023–24—112:22 minutes—behind only his defence partner.
Nevertheless, Ceci is more effective in a third pairing defence role than in a second pairing shutdown role. Nurse’s ability to produce has been hampered by his inability to regularly make a breakout pass.
Let’s introduce Tanev. Similar to Ceci, the Flames right-shot defenseman has only scored one goal and eight points in 41 games. With a goal share of 51.87% and an expected goal share of 50.77%, Tanev’s goal share is comparable to Ceci’s.
Tanev is superior than the other because, according to Woodmoney, he is an excellent defence versus elite players. Tanev has played 268:70 minutes—roughly 40 more minutes—against elite players. But there’s a big difference in the percentages between the two: Tanev plays 41.4% of his minutes against top players, while Ceci only plays 33.5%.
In terms of percentage of time on ice versus elite players, Tanev is ranked 13th among NHL defensemen who have played more than 100 minutes. So sure, a major upgrade over Ceci.
The case for the Flames
It’s not ideal to improve your provincial rival, especially when they could win the championship with the addition you provide them. But sending Tanev to the Oilers is the greatest option if the Flames want to get the most for him.
Tanev has a modified no-trade clause and a $4.5 million cap obligation for the balance of the season as an unrestricted free agent at season’s end. The Oilers’ decision to acquire Ceci only makes sense given that Tanev would be replacing him and the cap sort of works.
Ceci’s contract has one more season left with a $3.25 million cap hit. Sending an additional contract makes sense for Edmonton because the Oilers are practically right up against the cap. If the Oilers sent Warren Foegele, who has seven goals and 21 points in 40 games, that would be a nice example of a guy who would help maintain the Flames in the playoff race. Moreover, for the remainder of the season, his cap hit is $2.75 million.
But moving Ceci and Foegele to the Flames by the Oilers doesn’t even come close to completing a transaction for Tanev. The Oilers would likely have to remove a young player from their roster in addition to their 2024 first-round pick in order to pay the provincial tax.
Dylan Holloway, a previous first-round pick, may make sense for the latter. The 22-year-old, who primarily played in the Oilers middle six, scored three goals and nine points in 51 games during the 2022–23 campaign. The center/winger injured his kneecap after losing an edge, so he only appeared in 14 NHL games in 2023–2024.
As an alternative, the Oilers could select defenseman Philip Broberg with their eighth-overall pick in the 2019 draft. The left-shot defenseman, 22, has played in 79 NHL games with two goals and 11 points, but he hasn’t lived up to expectations with the Oilers. Maybe a shift of scenery would be beneficial for him.
This leads you to their extremely small pool of prospects. Though he has only played in 30 AHL games, Xavier Bourgault is arguably the best of the group with just four goals and eleven points. Beau Akey, their first-round selection in the 2023 draft, was sidelined by a dislocated shoulder that kept him out of the Barrie Colts’ season for the most part.
In all likelihood, the Oilers would need to make a trade akin to the one they did for Ekholm, who still has two and a half years remaining on his contract, in order to get Tanev. For background, the Oilers completed this trade with Nashville by sending Tyson Barrie, their first-round pick in 2023, Reid Schaefer, their first-round pick in 2022, and a fourth-round pick in 2023.
Even though Tanev will be a free agency at the end of the season, it wouldn’t be shocking if a deal between the two teams is similar to the Ekholm trade given the provincial tax and the Oilers’ philosophy of “cup or bust.” Ultimately, the Oilers might decide against taking a chance on forward depth in order to improve their defence.
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