Analysis: Ryan Poles said he needed to be “blown away” again this year to trade Justin Fields but it isn’t this simple and ultimately there are reasons he could be traded.
The Bears say they haven’t given up on Justin Fields.
Whether they’re just doing this to keep anyone from knowing what they’ll do with the first pick of the draft yet or whether they actually mean it, no one will find out for quite some time.
“It depends on what factors are in it, but in my mind right now I’m going to take this all the way to April,” GM Ryan Poles said.
For now, though, they’ll at least say the right thing and they did at their season-ending press conference.
“We love where Justin is right now,” coach Matt Eberflus said. “He’s done a good job growing. In the interceptions, keeping those down, the sack totals, he’s doing a good job with that, having his eyes down the field.
“He’s done a wonderful job with that, being able to deliver some strikes down there, and he’ll continue to grow as we grow as a football team.”
That all but says Fields is back.
Of course, it can all be subterfuge. Fields could be growing somewhere else next year while the Bears grow as a football team.
They’re going to use this run up to the draft to scrutinize the talent available.
Whether that means taking Caleb Williams No. 1, whether it means some other option like trading down a little and drafting a different quarterback so they can still have their cake—an extra pick or picks—and eat it too with a different QB they like in Round 1 is all up for consideration.
“I’ll actually go back to last year, and I’ve got to stay open minded about it, but I really—not to use the same quote (as last year), but—want to say blown away, but it’s the same setup,” Poles said. “Seeing the things Justin did this year, his ability to make plays, coach talked about some of those improvements, keeping his eyes down the field, taking less sacks, seeing a lot of growth where he can continue to get better.”
Will he be blown away? Or will it wind up like last year?
Poles didn’t get blown away by C.J. Stroud last year and he is a rookie sensation. However, almost no one else got blown away by Stroud, either. Bryce Young was the first pick and the consensus first pick of mock drafts everywhere.
That was last year.
This year, the Bears have the chance at a quarterback who former NFL GM Rick Spielman recently told NBC Sports Williams would be a better draft pick than Peyton Manning and Dan Marino were.
It’s hard to see why they wouldn’t be blown away if Williams is that good.
Here are all the reasons the Bears would decide to part ways with Fields.
1. Alternative Talent Available
For two years there have been scouts saying the best thing to do is wait until this draft to get a quarterback because Caleb Williams is the next Patrick Mahomes.
Then, because his team isn’t as good and struggles down the stretch he’s no longer the same talent?
Anyone who watches his fast release from the time he sees the target until the time the ball leaves his hand is astounded. It really does look like Marino’s release.
There are things to worry about, like he’s barely over 6 feet. Also, there have been suggestions he doesn’t want to come to Chicago’s harsh climate. Get in line Bub. None of us like it either. But for the money the first pick of the draft gets, you can buy nice coats.
Beyond Williams, Drake Maye and Jayden Daniels aren’t bad second/third choices at all. Daniels looks like a more mobile version of Jordan Love and Maye has classic QB traits, like he’s 6-5, stands tall in the pocket looking for targets and can run if he needs to. You can always trade down off Williams and gather more picks and still get one of those two if Williams is throwing pout fits.
Maybe one is the C.J. Stroud of 2024.
2. Fields Hasn’t Won
He’s had 38 starts and 10 wins. Jordan Love led a team to the playoffs in first season as starter and won a playoff game. C.J. Stroud did this but as a rookie and his team in 2022 had the same record as the Bears, 3-14. Trevor Lawrence hasn’t been quite what Jacksonville hoped but did quarterback a team to the playoffs in Year 2.
Fields often gets compared to Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts because of his mobility, and by Year 3 Hurts had a 23-11 record as starter and Allen a 28-15 record.
Baker Mayfield got run out of Cleveland after four-plus seasons but he had a winning record as starter following three years (23-22).
Even Zach Wilson and Daniel Jones had better records as a starter after three years than Fields.
Fields finished 22nd in passing yards this season and has a worse record as a starter in the NFL than any of the other QBs ahead if him for their first three seasons in the league. In In fact, there are 104 players who threw passes in the NFL in 2023 and among those who have been a team’s regular starting quarterback only Blaine Gabbert (.185) had a worse winning percentage after the first three seasons of his career than Fields (.263).
Sure, there are always other factors when it comes to win totals, like being backed by competent defense. But other quarterbacks have had bad teams and bad defenses in their first three years, and even had worse teams than the Bears even had. The Bears really had only one terrible season in Fields’ first three years.
3. Can’t Finish Games
In three seasons of starting, he has two fourth-quarter comebacks and three game-winning drives.
Even during the post-season press conference, Poles referred to this need to finish games.
For comparison purposes, Trevor Lawrence has five fourth-quarter comebacks and six game-winning drives and Zach Wilson five fourth-quarter comebacks and five game-winning drives. Justin Herbert was drafted a year before Fields and has 13 fourth-quarter comebacks and 10 game-winning drives in four seasons. C.J. Stroud has as many game-winning drives as Fields and has played one season. Bryce Young experienced an awful rookie year and has as many fourth-quarter comebacks as Fields and only one less game-winning drive but has played one year.
Jordan Love has played one season and one other start and has the same number of fourth-quarter comebacks and same number of game-winning drives as Fields.
4. Doesn’t Pass Effectively Enough
If you judge by completion percentage, Fields is way off. Among the top 50 active quarterbacks in passing yards, Fields ranks 40th. Of the top 50 in this category, he has a better career completion percentage than only six passers. His completion percentage in 2023 was a career high of 61.4%. They got him DJ Moore as a target and he could complete only 1% higher than last season’s completion percentage of 60.4%.
Fields had a better completion percentage than only three of the passers who ranked in the top 32 for passing yards this season despite his “improvement.” Fields’ 86.3 passer rating in Year 3 was 22nd in the league among starters and it’s the best he’s done. For comparison’s sake, Mitchell Trubisky had reached 95.4 by his second season and after three seasons had an 85.9 passer rating. Fields has an 82.3 career passer rating.
5. Fields Has Trade Value
Because of his athleticism and arm strength, Fields would still have decent trade value after three seasons. A Yahoo Sports poll done by Charles Robinson of seven former GMs determined he’d probably fetch the Bears a late second- or early third-round pick in return. If the Bears waited to trade Fields until after this year, his value might have dropped greatly. Trubisky didn’t get traded after three years but did not have his fifth-year option picked up. Then he didn’t have a good fourth season and wound up leaving in free agency after four years.
6. Rushing Doesn’t Equal Passing
Lamar Jackson is often said to be proof the Bears can win with a QB like Fields, a player who accounts for big chunks of yards with his legs to complement his passing.
It’s not a bad comparison, but Fields doesn’t compare. Jackson’s running and passing are complementary. Fields runs but his passing is not getting it done.
Rushing yards don’t equal passing yards. You’re not going to consistently make up for lower passing yard totals with a quarterback’s scrambling yards. Passes averaging 10 to 11 yards are much greater impact on an offense than the 5 to 6 yards a rush a good scrambler will get. Fields averaged 7.1 yards scrambling in 2022 and that was a ridiculously high average for a QB. He didn’t come close to that figure in 2023.
Jackson has been a spectacular runner, but he complements it with great passing. He has a 98.0 career passer rating and has never been lower than 87 since his rookie year. He also averages 7.5 yards per pass attempt, which is huge. Fields has only been over 6.9 in one of his three years and it was 7.1 then.
Fields has run for first downs on almost the same percentage of attempts as Jackson (36.0), but his passing numbers are not even close. Fields threw for a career high in yards this year and was still 1,116 yards behind Jackson’s total and he had a wide receiver better than Jackson’s best wide receiver.
Jackson threw for over 3,600 yards and the Ravens were 30th in pass attempts. That’s real efficiency.
If Fields is going to model his playing style after Jackson, he’d better include the pass.
7. Lack of Trust
It’s more a case of not trusting what he sees or fearing failure than one of not trusting teammates, but Fields tends not to deliver the ball on time. He holds it when it should be out.
The NextGen Stats time to pass of 3.23 seconds can be overemphasized with an athletic quarterback because they’ll sometimes hold it longer deciding to run or pass. But Fields’ time to throw was well behind the next closest starter, Russell Wilson and Deshaun Watson were at 3.06.
It does invite the possibility of sacks. The telling statistic was a 3.4 sack percentage for Tyson Bagent and 10.6 for Fields. The difference shouldn’t be that high. Sacks are drive killers and aren’t all on the offensive line. It’s Fields holding it too long, too. The decisions must come faster.
The trust aspect, whether with himself or with his teammates, must be mentioned because Fields rarely stands strong and delivers to the slant routes. It should have been a staple of that offense Luke Getsy ran but they almost never used it. He tends to hold the ball, has a hitch and then moves and finally will throw somewhere else rather than throw it quick and hard over the middle.
Other mobile passers will do it. He’s not going to improve until he starts trusting himself on those quick developing plays like this.
8. Doesn’t Get Through Progression
You have to wonder if Fields is able to get through his progression on time when all of the other wide receivers on the roster added up this year didn’t get as many targets as the 136 Moore had. He’s good, but not so good he gets more targets than all the other targets. If one of them wasn’t Darnel Mooney, then this could be the case. However, Mooney has had 61 and 81 catches before and getting only 61 targets this year was very low. Making only 31 catches was on Mooney and that’s not a good catch percentage. It seems like Fields is stuck in the rut of looking for Moore and then Cole Kmet and then running it.
9. The Cash Back
Considering how well the Bears are now set up for the salary cap, this can be an overblown factor. However, there will be a salary reset for at least four seasons. Fields will get a little bump in salary in 2024 and then will go up to around $23 million according to Overthecap.com. While that’s not an overwhelming amount, it’s still better for a team trying to build to have the amount reset to first year figures if they want to add more free agent talent or pay some player they might want to retain. Even the first pick of the draft allows the Bears to reset that salary situation at quarterback.
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